Wednesday, October 12, 2011

>Equity Strategy: On longer, higher, cleaner growth (JEFFERIES)

Key Takeaway
To us, the Indian economy is off the celebrated 8%+ growth path. And now this should be the number one economic concern. The causes are not all in the global environment. We present a basket of signs to point that something is amiss. More importantly, we discuss what we deem as the true drivers of longterm growth and what policy action is needed as a solution. Until efforts are
being made to address growth, or we see signs of global stability, we maintain our defensive bias on equities.

Needed first and foremost – an admission that growth is off: We study the past relationships of 12 high frequency domestic economic indicators with GDP. All of them suggest that current domestic growth is likely lower than the headline published GDP growth with more slowdown ahead.

All other economic indicators imply that it doesn't feel like 7.7% GDP growth

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