Thursday, February 5, 2009

>Debtshell (RELIGARE)

* The bond yields shot up to an 8-week high, as the market anticipated fresh
bond issues by the government in order to reduce the widening fiscal
deficit. The 8.24% GSec bond yield closed at a high of 6.49% on
Wednesday, up from the previous close of 6.35% on Tuesday.

* Call money closed at 4.1-4.15% on Wednesday, more or less steady from
the previous day's close. Adequate cash in the system kept the call rates

* Indian rupee stayed put at 48.82/$ on Wednesday, steady from the
previous day's close. The Indian rupee has seen a reversal of gains made
in the past few sessions on account of strengthening dollar and choppy
equity markets on Wednesday.

* A larger than expected crude inventory build-up as well as a weak US stock
market dragged the Nymex crude lower, which traded at around
$40.2/bbl. The Crude had ended the previous session at $41.02/bbl. The
uncertainty on whether the stimulus package would be sufficient to revive
the US banking sector is expected to keep the crude lower in the near

* The government will sell Rs. 47.49 bn of 10-year state loans today, ahead
of the Rs. 70 bn federal bond auction on tomorrow. The GSec bond yields
are likely to remain weak in this week, given the fresh issue of bonds
hitting the market.

To see full report: Debtshell 5-02-2009

>Market Insight (RELIGARE)

Man Industries - Revenue in line, adj. PAT beats estimates

For Q3FY09, Man industries reported a 10.4% YoY and a 21.3% QoQ increase in topline to Rs 4.5bn, in line with our estimates. Average realisations increased by 45.6% YoY and 11% QoQ to Rs 67,139.
LSAW and HSAW segment average realisations increased YoY by 24% and 63% to Rs 66,433 and Rs 67,269, respectively. Volumes declined a sharp 27% YoY to 67,281 tonnes. The LSAW volumes declined 23% YoY to 27,563 tonnes and HSAW volumes declined by 30% to 39,718 tonnes.
Sequentially, however, volumes were up 10.3%.
During the quarter, the company’s EBITDA/tonne increased 35.3% YoY and 24% QoQ to Rs
7,104/tonne. EBITDA margin expanded 119bps QoQ to 10.5%. Although adjusted PAT was down
12.1% YoY to Rs 182mn, it was 31.7% ahead of our estimates. PAT has been adjusted for a forex loss of Rs 213mn during the quarter.
The company won about Rs 3.2bn worth of orders in Q3FY09, compared to orders aggregating about Rs 11.8bn in the previous quarter. At end-December 2008, the order-book stood at Rs 13.5bn (about 210,000 of pipes), which is 0.87x its TTM sales.Man Industries decided to buy-back US$ 50mn FCCBs, which were issued in May 2007 and are redeemable in May 2012.
The stock is currently trading at a P/E of 3x and 2.7x FY09E and FY10E earnings, respectively. In light of the slower growth in order book, we maintain our Reduce rating on the stock. We are also
maintaining our FY09E and FY10E estimates, but are lowering our target price from Rs 42 to Rs 34. At our target price, the stock will trade at 3x FY10E earnings.

To see full report: Market Insight 5-02-2009

>Daily Market Preview (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

* The world markets again slipped into negative zone on concerns over pretty
weak state of banking sector in the US. We continue to believe that any
recovery in Equities is limited as worries continue on Global Economy. It
seems it will take a while before money start flowing into the system and
coordinated bail-out packages will have their positive impact.

* We therefore believe that markets are in uncertain times and it can still be in
the range of 2700-2850 in the short term. We advise trading with small profit
target and hedge your position partly with Index option as volatility may

To see full report: Market Preview 5-02-2009


To see report: Daily F&O 5-02-2009

>Econ (CITI)

Asia Economic Outlook and Strategy

Asia’s Disturbing GDP Trends

# Asian GDP growth rates have been falling faster
than expected, alongside steeper dipping of the
U.S. economy

# Production and export data also generally
surprised on the downside, prompting recession
concerns in the region

# We have downgraded our GDP forecasts this
month for China, Hong Kong, India, Korea,
Malaysia and Taiwan

# Deflation risks have become real in much of the

# We like receiving rates in Thailand and Singapore
and remaining long USD/Asian FX generally

To see full report: ECON