Tuesday, February 10, 2009

>Daily Market Preview (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

* Indian markets are expected to continue its gain after a great start on the
first day of the week on the expectation of the massive Bail-out package by
the US govt. Furthermore, couple of domestic factors like Interim Budget on
16th Feb and a third stimulus package is also adding to some positive mood.

* Yesterday Nifty has broken the crucial resistance of 2900 and we believe it could move 5-6 % further up from current level. We advise buying large caps
in FMCG, Oil and Metal space. However thin volumes being a concern, trades
must be initiated with strict stop loss.

To see full report: Market Preview 10-02-2009

>Daily Technical Report (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

US market perform on flat. Asian market , Asian utility stock rise as oil drop. Yesterday we got the 7.1% GDP expectation from the government officials. So this indicate the good picture of Indian economy, even it is better to say that government gave the sunrise in the recession scenario so allover it is positive impact in the Indian markets. Again the government is considering the third stimulus package to the corporate to give
more growth specific environment as specially the export oriented industry. So keep watch on that sector specific movement.
On technical note today market looks open with positive bias with the range bound outlooks. Intraday trader it is to be advisable that in morning session wait and watch approach is necessary and after the conformation of the trend it is advisable to make fresh position. Again it is to be note that the technical correction is expected so making fresh position, caution approach should maintain.

Today sensex trade in the range of 9730-9455 And Nifty in the range of 2965-2880

To see full report: Technical report 10-02-2009


Sell: 4Q PAT Betters Forecasts on Other Income, Lower Costs

* Derived 4Q PAT rises 5% YoY — ACC's 4Q PAT (derived from reported CY08
results) came in higher-than-expected at Rs3bn vs. our forecast of Rs2.1bn,
largely due to higher other income. 4Q EBITDA fell only 1% YoY due to lower
raw material & other expenses. Adj PAT for CY08 was Rs11.9bn (-8%) and
sales grew 5% to Rs73bn. CY08 volumes grew 5% and realizations fell 1% YoY.

* Volumes pick up, but some pricing pressure in 4Q — Volumes have been
sluggish for ACC until 3Q, but have picked up with ACC reporting a 9% growth
in 4QCY08. Volume growth should continue to be robust in the range of 9-12%
in the coming months. Realizations fell 2% YoY and 4% QoQ in 4Q. The
sequential decline is more than the 1% reported by the other majors.

* Benefiting from lower costs — 4Q profits were better than we expected for two
reasons: 1) Other income was higher due to write back of previous provisions,
insurance settlements and sale of scrap. 2) Costs were lower due to a better
coal mix, some productivity benefits in raw materials and completion of large IT
contracts recorded in other expenses. Most of these cost savings should
continue in the coming quarters.

To see full report: ACC

> Andhra bank (CITI)

3Q09 Results: Aggressive Loan Growth a Surprise

* 3Q09 profits up 34% YoY; core remains healthy but pace of growth a surprise
Andhra's bottom line grew 34% YoY and was slightly ahead of estimates
driven by a healthy core operating performance (pre-provision profits extrading
gains were up 16% YoY). NIMs remained strong, fee growth continued
and incremental slippages were reduced further. However, loan book grew at a
sharp 15% QoQ and raises incremental asset risk concerns.

* Margins recover from lows, fee grow remains healthy — Andhra's NIMs have
recovered smartly to over 330bps (from lows of 275bps in 1Q09) helped by a
reduction in wholesale deposit costs. Andhra's margins remained levered to an
easy liquidity environment due to its relatively high reliance on high cost
deposits and lower CASA ratio (32% now). Core fee income growth has
moderated a little though still healthy at 23% YoY.

* Pace of asset accretion is a surprise — Andhra Bank's loan book growth at an
aggressive 15% QoQ (34% YoY); and was the fastest QoQ accretion in its own
historical context. That it has come at a time of increasing economic duress
and led by a mid-market asset preference is surely a cause of concern.

To see full report: Andhra bank