Sunday, December 6, 2009

>Crude oil inches lower; US payrolls data eyed

London - Crude futures fall slightly amid cautious sentiment ahead of key US nonfarm payrolls data due 1330 GMT. "The nonfarm payrolls number will most likely have much influence in determining the dollar's short-term direction, with a stronger than expected number bolstering the dollar's fortunes," says Edward Meir of MF Global. Adds a rebound in the dollar would bring "more lasting damage" to oil prices. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect the payrolls data to show the U.S. economy lost 125,000 jobs in November, compared with 190,000 in October. ICE January Brent -44c at USD77.92/bbl, Nymex January light, sweet -58c at USD75.88/bbl.

Crude tad lower in Asia ahead of U.S. jobs report
Singapore - Crude oil futures were slightly lower in Asian trade Friday, as high inventories continued to weigh amid doubts about global economic recovery.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at $76.17 a barrel at 0650 GMT, down 29 cents in the Globex electronic session. January Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell 21 cents to $78.15 a barrel.

"As far as today goes, all eyes will be on November's unemployment rate, which the crowd forecasts at unchanged, 10.2%," said Stephen Schork in The Schork Report.

Recent data from the U.S. continued to reflect weak demand in the world's largest energy consumer, and a widening crude futures contango makes increased crude storage very likely.

Normally, an expanding contango would drive outright crude values sharply lower, possibly into the $65-$70-a-barrel zone, but with supporting financial factors, "sustaining downside crude price moves in the face of aggressive hedge fund buying interest is proving to be an arduous process," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.

The oil market was also pressured by the Institute for Supply Management report yesterday that said its service industry index for November fell to 48.7, from 50.6 in October, indicating a contraction in the industry--in contrast to an expansion predicted by economists.

Crude remains rangebound between $75 and $80 a barrel, but analysts say charts indicate a bearish scenario.

The latest U.S. inventories data wasn't good enough to say with confidence that economic recovery is gaining steam, said Phil Flynn of with PFGBest. "In fact they say we may be going back in the other direction." Unless demand picks up quickly, "I would say these numbers indicate that the economy has hit a plateau and runs a real risk of contracting again," he said.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for January fell 32 points to 198.98 cents a gallon, while January heating oil traded at 204.40 cents, 55 points lower.

ICE gasoil for December changed hands at $619.50 a metric ton, down $0.75 from yesterday's settlement.


Source: COMMODITIESCONTROL

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