Wednesday, September 2, 2009

>RBI buying relaxes market fears (EDELWEISS)

Sovereign bonds trailed an impressive trajectory today, the yield curve till the 10- year maturity drifting lower by 18-20bps. The decline yields seemed much like a relief rally to participants who had been reluctant to initiate fresh positions on the NDS-OM; total volumes on closed at a month’s high of INR 160.85 bn.

The 10-year benchmark bond yield declined by a massive 31bps to touch the day’s low of 6.99% before closing at 7.13%. The 5-7 year segment yields declined 20- 22bps, trading for 47% of the total volumes. The secondary market buying by RBI (also evident by tomorrow’s INR 60 bn OMO auction) has induced investor optimism to awaken trading interest in government bonds.

The INR 60 bn T-bill auction concluded with firmer cut-offs for the 91-day and 364-day instruments; while the former was up 4bps, at 3.40%, the latter inched higher by 17bps to report a cut-off of 4.34%. The auction reported a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.47, inviting investor interest in the non-MTM money market papers.

The infrastructure output growth for July stood at a dismal 1.8% relative to the previous month’s 5.1%. Also, contraction was the steepest in petroleum refinery products (at 14.4%), which miserably dragged down the 6-core industries index (the index accounts for 26.68% of IIP).

Annual Inflation for week ended August 15 stood at -0.95% relative to market expectation of -1.41% and previous week’s release of -1.53%. Food Prices continued to harden (by 3.2% W-o-W) accompanied by a rise in prices of primary articles of 2.1% (W-o-W).

An amount of INR 15.65 bn was raised in the short term non-SLR market; IOC’s INR 6 bn 3-month CP issue that received bids for nearly three times the amount was issued at 4.60%, to Mutual Funds plush with funds in their liquid portfolios.

To see full report: BOND VECTOR

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