Monday, June 29, 2009


Long-Term Rally or Dead Cat Bounce?

# Activity has surprised on the upside. The three main reasons for this are likely to have a
front-loaded impact on growth.

# Thus we expect the growth momentum to stutter. GDP will rise in 2010 in the US but not
by much, while eurozone GDP will again contract according to our forecasts.

# The market is premature in worrying about inflation. Inflation will eventually come, but only
because deflation fears will first lead to more unconventional policies. Deflation will be the big
theme once green shoots fail to flower.

# Markets may price in more chance of tightening before they price in less. But this will
prove to be a false presumption since deflation will encourage central banks to ease further
next year.

# We expect bond yields to decline in H2.

To see full report: GLOBAL OUTLOOK