Saturday, February 21, 2009

>India Infrastructure (JP MORGAN)

Actual spend lagging target

# Capex in key infrastructure sectors seems to be lagging 11th Plan targetsonly~
25% has been allocated till FY09: From the budget documents of FY08
and 09, we compiled capex for key central government infrastructure projects.
So far, actual spends have been ~10-20% lower than budgeted, with the
underachievement more pronounced in FY09. The government plans step up
spends by ~33% in FY10, but execution and funding would be key.

# Power sector: 20% slippage in 11th Plan target of 78GW likely, in our
view: From a separate document released by the power ministry, we believe it is
realistic to expect 63GW power capacity addition during the 11th Plan. The
document points to potential slippage of 2GW for NTPC (OW) and 1.3GW for
Reliance Power (UW). The document gives a relatively clean chit to BHEL,
which is responsible only for 13% of the slippage, whereas delayed ordering
of balance of plants accounts for 54% of the slippage in thermal capacity

To see full report: India Infrastructure