Sunday, January 4, 2009

>Market Outlook - Sharekhan - 03 01 09

Though the Indian economy is better placed than many of its Asian peers, it is in no way decoupled with the rest of the world and in the next few quarters it will grow at a rate much lower than the average growth rate seen in the past few years. Besides, the forthcoming Union elections and the unrelenting negative global news flow would continue to act as an overhang on the markets. But the good news is that the Indian economy is likely to respond to the recent monetary and fiscal measures, and could possibly witness a meaningful revival by the second half of CY2009.

Consequently, we expect the markets to remain range-bound and consolidate around the current levels for most of the first half of CY2009. In our view, the consolidation phase should be exploited as it offers a great portfolio building opportunity for the long-term investors. Though the uncertainties abound, the downside risk is limited and the risk-reward ratio is hugely in favour of the long-term investors. Especially since the benchmark index is trading at close to the historic low of around 10x one-year forward
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