Thursday, May 14, 2009

>Daily Market & Technical Outlook (ICICI Direct)

Key points
■ Market Outlook — Open with a gap down and trade negative

■ Positive — FIIs, MFs buying
■ Negative — Gloomy US retail sales report, crude rising again


Market outlook

■ Indian markets are likely to open with a gap down following global cues. As we said before, we advise against taking any aggressive trading positions since tomorrow is the last trading session before election results are announced on Saturday. We may witness volatility in the coming week once the results are out and we will get a clear direction for the short-term

■ Inflation for week ended May 2 is expected at 0.3% against 0.7% a week earlier


■ The Sensex has supports at 11860 and 11620 and resistances at 12090 and 12260. The Nifty has supports at 3560 and 3530 and resistances at 3640 and 3740


■ Asian stocks were trading weak in the early session with most of major indices losing 2-3%


■ US stocks tumbled on Wednesday as a gloomy retail sales report revived recent anxiety about the economy’s struggle and caused a broad sell-off that accelerated late in the session

■ Stocks in news: Cipla, TV18, TCS, Wipro, Suzlon


To see full report: OPENING BELL 140509

>DAILY CALLS (ICICI DIRECT)

Sensex: We said, "Intra-day technical position now turns over-bought ... Watch if dips remain nominal and Index can, then, move above day's high of 12195 and previous high of 12272." Index traded volatile, failed to cross 12272, and finally closed near lows, down 1%. Metals lost 2%. A/D ratio turned marginally negative.

The action formed a bear candle, which attempted to hold 50% retracement level to Tuesday's Piercing Line bull. Today, failure to hold its low, at 11934, can weaken the Index to threaten the Green support line at 11900, and test Tuesday's bouncing point at 11621. If gaps down, watch if supportive action, holding above 11621, is seen.

To see fumm report: CALLS 140509

>Nymex crude up on dollar slide; stockpile focus

Singapore - Crude oil futures pushed higher Wednesday in Asia as the dollar declined, while sentiment was also supported ahead of weekly U.S. government oil data.

While U.S. crude stockpiles have risen steadily to multiyear highs, a separate report from the American Petroleum Institute industry group late Tuesday showed an unexpectedly steep drawdown last week, alongside declines in product inventories, putting traders on the defensive.

"This week's API report was the most bullish report seen in a very long time. That makes today's (Energy Information Administration) report critical," said Peter Beutel, president at trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in June traded at $59.78 a barrel at 0655 GMT, up 93 cents or 1.6% in the Globex electronic session.

Nymex heating oil for June climbed 196 points to 152.66 cents a gallon, while June reformulated gasoline blendstock traded at 169.33 cents, 254 points higher.

Nymex crude overnight spiked above the psychologically important $60-a-barrel mark for the first time since Nov. 11, as traders bet the approach of summer would lift gasoline consumption and tighten the market.

While U.S. crude stockpiles have climbed nine straight weeks to their highest since 1990, the country's gasoline stocks are comparable with year-ago levels, suggesting demand - while still weak - is still matching supply.

The dollar's decline Wednesday against the euro and the yen also shored up buying interest in dollar-denominated commodities, including oil and gold.

The EIA, a unit of the Department of Energy, is expected to report across-the-board builds in U.S. crude and product stockpiles.

Commercially held crude inventories are expected to have climbed 1.3 million barrels in the week to May 8, according to the average prediction from 15 analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

Gasoline stockpiles were probably unchanged on week while distillates, including heating oil and diesel, may have risen 1.3 million barrels, the survey showed.

The average refinery run rate was seen 0.1 percentage point up from 85.3% of capacity previously.

The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report is due at 1430 GMT.

The API, apart from the crude stockdraw, also reported gasoline stocks declining 2 million barrels, as well as a 1.8 million-barrel drop in distillates.

"While additional price gains are difficult to justify based on pure fundamental analysis, we are still leaving open the possibility of some additional near-term price strength," Jim Ritterbusch at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note to clients.

"We would caution against selling this market at the present time and we will evaluate a trading stance in light of the market's response to the EIA report."

Later Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will release its monthly report, potentially offering some hints of its thinking ahead of a policy meeting May 28.

The Middle East-dominated, 12-member group pumps 40% of the world's crude.

At 0655 GMT, oil prices on London's ICE Futures exchange also rose.

Brent crude for June, which expires Thursday, was up 94 cents at $58.88 a barrel, while June gasoil changed hands at $490.75 a metric ton, chalking up $7.50 from Tuesday's settlement.

Source: COMMODITIESCONTROL

>JSW Steel (CITI)

Sell: 4Q Loss; Margins Collapse

4Q disappoints — JSTL reported standalone PAT of Rs492m. Adjusting for the FCCB buyback & forex gains, net loss for 4Q was Rs258m vs profit of Rs4.4bn in 4QFY08. EBITDA margin came in at 11% vs 27% in 4QFY08 and 15% in 3QFY09, impacted by 13% yoy decline in realizations and higher costs. Sales volumes rose 5% yoy to 1.06m tonnes. FY09 adj PAT fell 44% yoy to Rs9.3bn.


High opening inventory — 4Q EBITDA/t fell to $67 vs $188 last year and $122 in 3QFY09. Even though JSTL had contracted coking coal at $175/t for most of its 4Q off-take (vs $305/t for FY09), the quarter was impacted by significant high-cost opening inventory. ~8% of coking coal contracted at $305/t in FY09 is yet to be lifted and JSTL is in negotiations to spread it over the next 2-3 yrs.

US platemill to be shut — The US plate/pipe mills are operating at 10-15% utilization and reported a 4Q loss of $61m and a $37m loss for FY09.

Stretched balance sheet — Standalone debt is Rs101bn and cons. debt is Rs146bn (standalone D/E 1.2x; cons D/E 1.8x). While JSTL has breached its standalone debt covenant of 3.25x Debt/EBITDA (3.3x as on 31 March 09), most of its lenders have approved the relaxation of these covenants.

Volume estimates — JSTL has enhanced capacity to 7.8mtpa (+63%) and expects FY10 volumes to rise 78% - which appears to be an onerous target. We expect 51% growth.

Sell — While steel stocks have appreciated substantially, the risk of supply restarts and downside to prices persists. Hence, we prefer less leveraged plays.

To see full report: JSW STEEL