Friday, March 30, 2012

>Liberty Phosphate: For solid gains

The share of Liberty Phosphate Ltd. (LPL) (Code: 530273) (Rs.68) is recommended for solid appreciation in the medium-term based on the company’s expansion plans and its highly encouraging results. 

Incorporated in 1987, LPL manufactures single super phosphate (SSP) and sells the fertilizer under the ‘Double Horse’ brand for various crops like oil seeds, groundnut and potato. 

LPL also produces SSP in granulated form called GSSP. It also makes nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), fertiliser, soil conditioner, phospho bupsum, magnisium sulphates, and zinc sulphate. LPL has four manufacturing units situated at Udaipur (Rajasthan), Nandesari (Gujrat), Kota (Rajasthan) and Pali (Maharashtra). The company’s state-wise SSP capacity is as follows: Rajasthan 800 tonnes per day (TPD), Gujarat 200 TPD, Maharashtra 150 TPD, and Madhya Pradesh 300 TPD. 

Proximity to raw material sources/markets coupled with a dedicated multi-disciplinary work force has enabled LPL to respond to spurts in demand. 

The raw material required for manufacturing SSP is Rock Phosphate and Sulphuric Acid. Indigenous rock phosphate is available in plenty from the Jhamarkotra mines, Udaipur. 

Sulphuric Acid is supplied by Hindustan Zinc situated at Udaipur. Presently, the company purchases about 10,000 tonnes per month of sulphuric acid for its various units by way of long term agreement with Hindustan Zinc. LPL’s prestigious clients include Tata Chemicals, Zuari, GNFC, Chambal Fertilizers, Gujarat Agro Industries, Oil Federation and MP Agro Industries and various farmers. 

LPL, the largest producer and supplier of Single Super Phosphate (Powder & Granulated) plans to boost its production capacity from 5,62,000 MTPA to 9,24,000 MTPA. 

Currently, the unit at Udaipur in Rajasthan is operating at full capacity of 2,64,000 TPA of SSP/GSSP. The company recently completed capacity expansion at its Nandesari unit in Gujarat from existing 1,00,000 TPA to 1,98,000 TPA. LPL has applied for capacity expansion at its unit in Kota in Rajasthan from 132000 to 198000 TPA of SSP/GSSP. Environment Clearance is under process and is expected to be finalized by May 2012. Besides, LPL plans to expand capacity at its Pali unit in Maharashtra from 66000 to 132000 TPA and to install a SSP plant of 132000 TPA capacity at its Rae Bareilly unit in Uttar Pradesh. During FY11, net profit ballooned by 411% to Rs.33.1 crore on 78% higher sales of Rs.364 crore and the EPS stood at Rs.23. 

During Q3FY12 net profit advanced 25% to Rs.12.6 crore on 32% increased sales of Rs.109 crore. During 9MFY12, net profit surged 39% to Rs.33 crore on 8% higher sales of Rs.324 crore. The EPS for 9MFY12 works out higher at Rs.23. LPL’s small equity capital of Rs.14.4 crore is supported by reserves of Rs.74 crore, which gives its share a book value of Rs.61. The promoters hold 55% in the equity capital. Foreign holding is 13.9% and with PCBs holding is 2.4% leaves 28.7% with the investing public. 

Coming to its future prospects, SSP is a straight phosphatic multi-nutrient fertilizer which contains some other essential micro nutrients in small proportions. It is a poor farmer's fertilizer (price-wise) and an option to optimise the use of phosphatic fertilizers. It also helps to treat sulphur deficiency in soils (40% Indian soil is sulphur deficient) for further enhancement of yields at the least cost. In various crops like oilseeds, pulses, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables, tea etc, which require more of sulphur and phosphate SSP is an essential fertilizer.

India is the second largest consumer of fertilizers in the world next to China. Demand for fertilizer will keep on increasing in future to ensure food security of the country. To meet the increasing demand future policies should encourage creation of domestic capacity of fertilizer as international prices are volatile.
Currently, the fertilizer industry operates under stringent regulations. The FM has recently in his Budget Speech emphasised more focus on SSP industry and related crops.

LPL can lay claim to be the catalyst in the transformation of Indian Agriculture with high capacity and strong dealership network catering 13 States in the country directly as well as through co-partners and pioneer fertilizer companies like Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals, GNFC, Zuari Industries. During FY12, LPL is expected to register sales of Rs.450 crore with net profit of Rs.40 crore, which would fetch an EPS of Rs.27.8. At the current market price of Rs.68, the share is traded at a P/E multiple of 2.4 on FY12 estimated earnings. A conservative P/E of even 4 will take its share price to Rs.100 in the medium-term and fetch a decent gain of about 50%. LPL’s business is dependent upon policy dispensations of the Government. Any change is likely to affect the projections and plans.

RISH TRADER

>TECPRO SYSTEMS LIMITED

Promoted by Mr. Ajay Kumar Bishnoi and Mr. Amul Gabrani in 1990, Tecpro Systems Ltd. (TSL) is engaged in providing turnkey solutions in material handling, ash handling, balance of thermal power plant (BoP) and pollution control system. From a modest beginning as an equipment suppliers, TSL has gradually progressed to providing complete material handling solutions. Over the years, it has developed extensive in-house mechanical, electrical, civil design and engineering capabilities with an established track record of executing turnkey projects in the power, steel and cement industries. It has successfully created an in-house design and engineering team consisting of 300 engineers and experienced project management team which gives it control of the entire process, from conceptualization to commissioning of a project. Its business activities are broadly classified into the following four segments:


 Material Handling Solutions (50%): This is the flagship business of TSL where it undertakes turnkey projects of material handling systems for power, cement, steel, ports, coal and aggregate process plants for mineral processes. These projects involve design, engineering, manufacturing, supply, erection and commissioning of material handling systems, associated structural and civil work, electrical and instrumentation work and auxiliaries like dust control, suppression systems, ventilation systems and fire fighting systems. It specializes in creating systems that can be stationary, mobile or semi-mobile with typical capacity upto 300 tonnes per hour (TPH). TSL offers several types of conveyor systems like troughed, flat belt, pipe, screw, drag chain or salt chain conveyors and belt conveying systems for handling of bulk material from fine material like cement, lime powder to rocky materials like iron ore and limestone to cement and fertilizer bags and difficult materials like bauxite, clay, lignite and bagasse. Till date, TSL has executed over 1000 material handling projects on turnkey basis and has over 200 projects in hand to be executed.


 Ash Handling (40%): TSL forayed into ash handling solutions pursuant to the merger of
Tecpro Ashtech Limited, which has been engaged in the business of ash handling systems for over 40 years and has provided turnkey ash handling solutions in several thermal power projects. Ash handling in the power, cement or steel plants is extremely critical considering the environmental impact of the ash spillage and storage and disposal. Hence TSL utilizes different ash handling technologies including pneumatic conveying, slurry and pumping of ash in liquid state or solid conveying through conveyors. It has expertise in creating Bottom Ash System, Fly Ash System, Coarse Ash System, Ash Slurry Disposal System etc which includes water pumping facility, compressed air facility, electrical power distribution system, PLC based controls and instrumentation system, civil and structural works. Till date, TSL has executed over 75 ash handling projects on a turnkey basis and has over 30 projects in hand to be executed.


 BOP & EPC (10%): Leveraging its project management track record in material handling and ash handling solutions, TSL of late has ventured into the EPC business and started taking BoP contracts for coal-based thermal power plants and liquid fuel handling. It has executed contracts on turnkey basis, which include coal handling solutions, ash handling solutions, setting up of cooling towers, switchyard and plant electrical, water treatment plants and other auxiliary civil constructions. It either enters into collaborations or outsource to a third party supplier for providing BTG packages. Its EPC business is focused on providing integrated turnkey solutions for small power plants based on Indian or imported coal, washery rejects and biomass as main fuel. TSL received the first EPC order in 2007 whereas the first BoP order it got was in August 2009.


Other Business: TSL through its various subsidiaries also has presence in other areas like supply of air pollution control equipment, waste processing, waste water treatment & waste heat recovery. It provides turnkey solutions for management and processing of municipal solid waste that can be used as either land fill or for generation of fuel, which is used as an alternative fuel for burning in kilns in the cement industry or in boilers. In August 2011, it acquired 100% stake in Ambika Projects, a Chennai based company engaged in the business of water & waste water treatment with presence in Chennai, Mumbai and Sultanate of Oman.


TSL has four manufacturing facilities in India, of which, three are at Bhiwadi, Rajasthan, and one at Bawal, Haryana. It manufactures stackers, reclaimers, crushers, screens, feeders and fabricated structures at its factory in Bawal, Haryana. The first unit at Bhiwadi, Rajasthan has facilities for manufacturing pulleys, idlers & rollers, structures, feeders, screens, conveyor systems, conveyor components, crushers and screen parts whereas the second unit has a casting division. The third unit manufactures ash handling equipments. For sales and marketing it has a pan-India presence with its head office in Chennai and design, engineering & marketing offices at Gurgaon, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune, Ahmedabad and Bangalore. Through its subsidiaries in Dubai and Singapore and marketing office in Johannesburg, South Africa, it caters to the needs of Middle East, South-East Asia and African markets. Importantly, TSL has eight foreign collaborations for various material handling equipment and technologies and three collaborations in relation to ash handling operations. In July 2011, it entered into an agreement with US-based Advanced Conveyor Technologies to get technical support for design, distribution and installation of overland conveyor projects. Earlier, it had entered into two new technology tie-ups one with Pneuplan Oy of Finland for projects involving pneumatic conveying for fly ash and another with Nanjing Triumph of China in the waste heat recovery segment. Within a short time of this collaboration for waste heat recovery, TSL bagged two orders from Ultra Tech and one order from Shree Cement aggregating Rs.224 crore. Waste heat recovery is a relatively new concept to the Indian cement industry, wherein the exhaust gases produced during production of cement are used as fuel to produce power. This is a high potential business as power is being generated by using waste gas thereby saving cost of power. TSL is confident of bagging many more orders in this space in the near future as there are only a few players. 


During 2010-11, TSL strengthened its foothold to become one of the leading players in the BoP space. It won two prestigious orders from APGENCO aggregating to about Rs.1,978 crore for Rayalaseema Thermal Power Project Stage IV (1x600 MW) and Kakatiya Thermal Power Project Stage II (1x600 MW). In addition, it was awarded an order by Kohinoor Power for design, engineering, project management & supply of a 66 MW power plant in Jamshedpur. Ironically, TSL normally bids for only those projects where BTG has already been ordered, environmental clearances obtained, land & coal linkages achieved and financial closure done. This ensures that these orders are more likely to get executed within the planned timelines. As of December 2011, TSL has a robust unexecuted order book position of Rs.4600 crore, which is 2.5 times its FY11 turnover, thereby providing strong revenue visibility for the next 4-6 quarters. In the first three quarters of FY12, it won fresh orders to the tune of Rs.1600 crore. The order book comprises 58% for Material Handling division, 34% towards BOP and the rest 8% is for Ash Handling division.


Going forward, TSL intends to move towards providing more value-added engineering services and improving the manufacturing and project execution capabilities. It intends to foray into the supply and commissioning of water treatment plants, coal washeries, port handling operations and other projects in the infrastructure sector. In order to acquire technical expertise in these new ventures, it is looking to enter into technical collaborations or strategic tie-ups with international companies with advanced manufacturing technologies or acquire existing companies with such technical expertise. On the other hand it has formulated a simple strategy to participate in large projects in the BoP & EPC space under consortium bidding and jointly execute projects to build a versatile track record. The size of the opportunity in the Balance of Plant segment of power plant is huge. It is expected to attract investments worth Rs.1.6 trillion over the next five years. Such growth is expected primarily from coal based capacity addition during the next five years. Recently in the Budget 2012, government has decided to provide some tax benefits to power sector and proposed to scrap customs duty on imported coal and a concessional CVD of 1% to steam coal for a period of two years till 31 March 2014. This step is estimated to bring down electricity generation cost by 12 paise per unit. Also, an improving economic scenario, continued government focus on infrastructure investment and pick-up in private capex augurs well for companies providing material handling solutions for the core industries. Further, the company intends to set up 100% subsidiary in Indonesia to tap opportunities available in the bulk material handling and mining sector there. 


On the financial front, TSL registered 40% jump in revenue to Rs.1430 crore whereas PAT grew by modest 10% to Rs.29 crore for the nine month ending December 2011. Given the nature of business and accounting practices adopted, TSL recognizes majority of the revenue & profits during the last quarter of the financial year. Hence it is expected to end the current fiscal with a topline of Rs.2500 crore with PAT of Rs.150 crore i.e. an EPS of Rs.30 on its current equity of Rs.50.50 crore. Although TSL has debt:equity ratio of little over 1, debtors outstanding of 200 days and negative cash flow from operating activities, it is normal for a growing company in EPC space. At the current market cap of Rs.800 crore, it is trading grossly cheap at a P/E multiple of 5 times. Investors are strongly recommended to buy the stock current levels and add more on declines. At a reasonable P/E multiple of 8 times, its share price has the potential to move up to Rs.240 within a year. Long-term investors can expect much higher returns.
RISH TRADER

Thursday, March 29, 2012

>Iran Sanctions Crisis Roils Energy, Shipping (REUTERS)



  • Iran oil exports fall as sanctions take toll
  • Shell scrambles to pay $1 bln bill for Iran oil
  • U.S. exempts 11 states from Iran sanctions; China, India exposed
  • India pushes refiners to cut Iran imports, despite sanctions scorn
  • Saudi oil sales to US jump; Iran response or just business?
  • Catch me if you can - oil sanctions against Iran
  • RBS halts India tanker payment due to Iran sanctions
  • Shell scrambles to pay $1 bln bill for Iran oil
  • U.S. exempts 11 states from Iran sanctions; China, India exposed



To read report in detail: Oil sanctions against Iran
RISH TRADER

>CUMMINS INDIA LIMITED: Expansion at Phaltan Megasite to fuel Cummins future growth Engine

■ Substantial Revenue growth despite multiple headwinds: Despite of high interest rates and commodity prices coupled with uncertain global environment, the company has been growing at a CAGR of 16.47% for the last 5 years. It is poised to grow at a CAGR of 14% for the next 5 years with improved outlook on export demand and substantive growth across all segments, particularly in segments like power generation and industrial business which contribute around 45% and 20% to the total revenue respectively.


■ New products to aid to future growth; Margins bottoming out: Cummins elasticity of adopting the new technology and using the same efficiently will help the margins to bottom out. It will significantly benefit from the enhanced products built‐in with new emission power generation norms and industrial engines due to superior product development capabilities. Hence, with the improving demand scenario and correction in commodity prices, there will be an upside in EBITDA margins, going forward.


 Expansion at Phaltan Megasite to fuel Cummins future growth Engine: Cummins is well placed with its expansion initiatives at Megasite, Phaltan. It constitutes almost 10 facilities in total, out of which 4 are operational and remaing would be operational by 2016 and contribute additional INR1500 crores to the overall revenue. The 2 operational facilities namely Upfit centre & MIDC SEZ would add up annual capacity of 20,000MW & 51,000MW respectively.


■ Power Generation Business to act as power booster: The company expects the Power generation business to grow at a CAGR of 12‐15%% over the next five years. The growth will be mainly driven by 1) market growth 2) LHP export opportunity at MIDC SEZ 3) larger penetration in the domestic LHP market (though might come at lower margins) and 4) tapping the bio mass opportunity. The company anticipates some pre‐buying behavior to show up before the change in the emission norms in July 2013 which would contribute heavily to the revenues. Cummins is confident that it will be able to penetrate the market much better post the norm change, given its technology leadership and readiness with the product to meet the revised needs of the customers


■ Cummins‐Cash enriched and Steady Balance Sheet: The Company has enough cash to carry on its future operation and expansions. It has strong balance sheet with healthy reserves and low debt.


To read full report: CUMMINS INDIA
RISH TRADER