>The PCI Indicator (PERCENTAGE CHANCE INDICATOR)

• This excellent indicator can only be used for the Forex market. It has specific parameters that are ideal for the volatility of spot Forex.

• The PCI can be used on any time interval:


• The PCI is a leading indicator and not a lagging indicator.

• The main purpose of the PCI Indicator is to the help the trader understanding the probability of market direction.

• The PCI monitors price movement (trend) and the probability of trend reversal.

• It is very important that the trader understand that there is no indicator that offers a 100% success rate, but the PCI has an extremely high rate of profitable signals.

• The key to success is learning to interpret the indicator along with other technical tools: Candlestick Charting, chart patterns of trend continuation and reversal, and fundamental events
.
• The PCI Indicator can become a very helpful tool because it confirms when the market is in an up trend, downtrend, or bracketed market.

More Specifics on the PCI Indicator

• The PCI Indicator is made up of five lines. This technical indicator estimates the probability of market direction by suggesting Bid or Ask positions.

• Let’s look at the essay on the PCI Indicator by InfoTech. Look at the bottom of the first page at the graph of the PCI chart plotting.

• Two Dotted Lines: There are 2 dotted lines on the chart – one at the top and one at the bottom. These dotted lines indicate the 0% to 100% boundaries of the indicator.

• The Black Line: There is a horizontal, fixed line that is positioned at 50% of the scale. This line is a filter or potential signal line that does not move.

• The Pink and Green trading signal lines move back and forth across the black filter line.

• The Pink Line: Is a moving average line that plots the overall longer-term direction of the market trend. It is a line that moves up or down, slowly heading in the direction of the overall trend.

To read the full report: PCI

>REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS (GOLDMAN SACHS)

Themes emerging from data, site visits and channel checks
We list key themes for the property sector following analysis of recent industry data and our recent site visits and channel checks with brokers in Delhi-NCR, Chennai and Bangalore:

1. Pan-India monthly residential sales volumes has moderated from an aggregate 19,700 units/month sold in March-May to 16,100 units in June- August across the markets we track. However, it should be borne in mind that this period may be seasonally weak and we await data for September- October to see if there has been a festive season pick-up.

2. Residential new launch absorption has fallen from between 40%-60% in April-June to about 20%-25% in Jul-Aug. We note the number of launches in Jun-Aug was lower vs. Mar-May and prices for some new launches have also gone up.

3. Moderation in affordable housing take-up. The inventory of unsold homes in the Rs0.5-Rs3.0 mn/unit range has been increasing through CY2009. Cumulative absorption is encouraging in pockets of NCR but below 40% in some markets like Chennai and Bangalore.

4. Office lease take-up weak but some green shoots. Take-up across the six major markets of Mumbai, Gurgaon, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai and Kolkata in August 2009 was about 70% lower vs. August 2008. However, the trajectory in Mumbai and Bangalore has improved since
March and it remains to be seen whether there is a significant pick up in 2010 with higher corporate budgets.

5. Execution ramp-up: We visited some DLF and Unitech sites recently and while work is underway on a number of sites, some developers may need to deliver north of 10 mn sq ft pa if demand for affordable housing units is robust over the coming months. Execution of this scale would be more than what they have done in the past.

6. Channel checks indicate investor-driven residential demand, yet to see significant pick-up in office market: Our channel checks in NCR and Chennai indicate that property investors have been quite active over the past six months with regard to take-up of new launches. Brokers we spoke with also indicated that the office market has not witnessed a significant pick-up in volume, especially in Gurgaon and Chennai.

To read the full report: REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS

>TATA CHEMICALS LIMITED (MERRILL LYNCH)

■ Earnings decline as expected; Reiterate Underperform
Tata Chemicals Q2 revenue and recurring PAT declined over 50% yoy led by poor performance in soda ash and non-urea fertilizers. Post this we change estimates marginally and reiterate Underperform with PO of INR180. Our PO is pegged at 7.6x FY11E P/E- a 10% discount to the 8yr avg, which is justified given weak demand in non-urea fertilizers & pressured pricing scenario in soda ash.

■ Soda ash volumes improve sequentially but at lower prices
GCIP volumes were up 23% qoq but at lower prices especially in export markets. This was led by ANSAC’s focus on regaining market share from Chinese exporters. Industry reports suggest that Chinese exporters continued to sell at or below their delivered costs in Sep qtr. We believe this will keep prices in check near term and pressure margins in soda ash though at higher capacity utilization.

Not yet out of woods

■ Mixed performance in fertilizers to continue
Urea volumes were up 9% yoy but NPK fertilizer volumes declined 49% led by weak monsoon. IMACID continued to report losses for the fourth sequential quarter. While we expect IMACID performance to improve in H2FY10, muted sales in NPK will likely continue as a follow up of weak monsoons. The company mentioned that it is considering doubling its urea capacity through brown field expansion.

■ Risk reward unfavorable
While we expect earnings to decline 28% in FY10, the stock trades at 11x FY11e PE and 7.1x FY11E EV/EBITDA. We rate risk-reward unfavorable given i) pressured price outlook in soda ash, ii) expectation of continuing softness in non-urea fertilizers and iii) increasing pension liabilities. Reiterate Underperform.

To read the full report: TATA CHEMICALS

>Q3'09 GLOBAL IPO UPDATE (ERNST & YOUNG)

Q3'09 Key Highlights

To read the report: GLOBAL IPO