>Reliance Communications (CITI)

INDIA CONNECT

So What Has RCOM Achieved?

• GSM net adds overcome RCOM's offer — GSM net adds (excl. RCOM) for Jan-09

was 9.3m, up from 8.1m in Dec-08. While Bharti’s net adds remained stable at
2.73m, Vodafone and Idea had significant acceleration. The net adds for the GSM
incumbents was strong across various categories (Metro/A/B/C), and even the new
launches (Idea in Bihar/Mumbai, Vod in Orissa, MP) were not affected.

• What's happening in the market? — In Metro/A circles, Bharti/Vod/Idea maintained

or accelerated their net adds. This is intriguing given that RCOM’s offer would
have focused on larger cities/towns initially. Absence of any impact could be due
to (i) incumbents’ gross adds coming from semi-urban/rural areas not covered by
RCOM and (ii) RCOM’s subs coming mainly from dual-SIM owners, which does not
show up as incumbents’ churn as increasing % have lifetime validity. In any case,
churn numbers remain subjective with material variations in reporting policies.

• New launches have weathered the storm too — Vod/Idea accelerated the net adds

in their new circles. Since data in new circles is mostly gross adds, it is quite
encouraging, esp. Idea’s surge in Mumbai in Jan-09 (60% of net adds) despite
being the focus of RCOM launch. While Idea’s reactionary tariffs in Mumbai seem
to have worked, we don’t see any need/motivation to replicate it elsewhere.

To see full report: RCOM

>Daily Market Preview (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

* We expect markets to hold on to its gain as Indian equities are showing
resilience and price recovery is very much in place. Lower inflation and
positive expectation from the third stimulus package could provide further
direction to the local indices. However IIP numbers due to high base effect
could partially dampen the overall sentiments.

* While Asian markets are trading weak India is likely to open lower however
we see strong support around 2800 level. We advise buying large caps in
Capital Goods, Infrastructure, Construction, Oil and Banking sectors.

To see full report: Market Preview 12-02-2009

>Daily Technical Report (MARWADI FINANCIAL)

Wall street Gain, Asian market decline on doubts US stimulus Measures will revive growth. Again today IIP and inflation numbers is declared so we expect before the key data lot of volatility will take place.
Experts expect that the IIP numbers will decline in Decembers is -0.2%, inflation numbers will continue in the south wards direction so keep watch on that events. Again the technical correction is expected. Today last parliament House is started and the major party raise their points in this session so it also the crucial events for the markets.
On Technical note market today looks marginal negative opening and the through the will remain in the volatile mode. Intraday trader it is advisable to wait in morning session but after establishing the trend script specific buying will emerge so keep watch on that counters. At higher levels profit booking is also advisable.
Today sensex trade in the range of 9730-9540 And Nifty in the range of 2930-2870

To see full report: Technical Report 12-02-2009

>Derivative Strategy (MICROSEC)

HIGHLIGHTS

● Although Nifty remained range-bound between 2890 and 2960, the breadth of the
market was positive and the midcap index moved up by 1.6%

● Nifty Put Call ratio (OI) rose to 1.34 with the total open interest in Call options at
712,275 lots and that in Put options at 957,454 lots

● Nifty Call options of strike 3000 added 11070 lots to open interest while Put
options of strike 2800 had a build up of 13264 lots

● Dish TV, Unitech Ltd, Educomp Solutions, HDIL, Divis Laboratories, Lanco
Infratech, Punj Lloyd, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adlabs Films,
Reliance Capital and United Spirits look good

● Volatility Index fell by 0.63% from 44.58 to 44.30 after making an intra-day low of
40.93

To see full report: Derivative Strategy