Monday, February 20, 2012

>Marico Acquires Paras’ Personal Care Brands from Reckitt

■ What's new? — Marico has acquired key personal care brands (Set Wet, Livon, Zatak, among others) from Reckitt Benckiser for an undisclosed amount. Reckitt had acquired these brands from Paras Pharmaceuticals last year. The transaction involves the transfer of all key assets (IPRs, supply agreements & third party manufacturing agreements) to a separate company, which Marico will acquire over the next 3 months.


■ Transaction adds ~4% to FY12E consolidated revenues — Mgmt noted that the revenues of the acquired business are likely to be ~Rs1.5bn in FY12E; i.e. ~4% of consolidated revenues. It notes that these brands in aggregate have grown at 20% p.a. (largely volumes) over the past few years - with GMs >50% - higher than Marico’s consolidated business. Details on the operating or net margins aren’t disclosed.


■ Marico will purchase 3 main brands — a) Zatak (mass deodorant), b) Set Wet (styling gel + premium deo) and c) Livon (post wash conditioner). Mgmt noted that deos comprise ~50% of the revenues (both have ~6% market share), and the balance 50% is hair creams, conditioners, etc. Deos category has been an outperformer, growing at ~40% CAGR over the past 3 years.


■ Strategically, transaction shows Marico’s intent in personal care — Mgmt disclosed strategic rationale was a) to attain critical mass with Marico’s brand Parachute Advansed in the post shower hair care + skin care space, b) some distribution synergies – Paras has reach of ~0.3m outlets – the company will gain incremental access to 60k (modest, given Marico’s total reach of 3m+ outlets). Given the small scale vs. the overall business, we think near-term synergies are limited. It will be interesting to see if over the medium term, mgmt launches the Vietnamese male grooming brands in India to augment the business – somewhat similar to Derma’s products in Kaya.


■ Balance sheet implications — Marico has cash surplus of ~Rs4bn end Dec11. Mgmt noted that after setting aside a strategic cash reserve, it expects to utilize short-term debt to fund the acquisition and then use a mix of debt, internal accruals and / or equity financing. Given that Reckitt had paid ~8x trailing sales for Paras, even applying a 25- 50% discount would imply Marico’s consideration will be ~Rs5.6-8.4bn – essentially implies debt reduction is unlikely over the next 2 years.


RISH TRADER

Sunday, February 19, 2012

>JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES: JPA looking to divest stake in Gujarat & AP cement plants


■ Revenue at Rs 32.6bn +12.6% yoy marginally lower led by Real estate JPA’s Q3FY12 Revenue at Rs 32.6bn +12.6%yoy v/s exp. Rs33.6bn. Cement vertical – Performance in line (Rs 16.9bn + 37% yoy led by +17% volume growth, +17% realization growth to Rs 4,065/ton), Construction vertical – Performance marginally lower (Rs 12.4bn v/s exp. Rs 12.7bn. Real estate vertical – Performance disappoints – Rs 3.1bn v/s exp. Rs 4bn.


■ Cement biz stabilizing – Volumes+17.2% to 4.25mt, Real.+17% to 4065/ton With sharp price hike witnessed in 3Q in JPA’s key markets, the cement business saw sharp improvement with the division reporting EBITDA/t of Rs743/ton v/s Rs 201/ton witnessed in Q2FY12. With the company commissioning its Balaji Cement Plant at AP the installed cement capacity has reached ~ 30 mtpa (27.5 mtpa in standalone & 2.2
mtpa in JV with SAIL). We expect these capacities to see gradual ramp up and expect overall FY13E dispatches growth of 22.7% yoy to 21.5 MT (Ex Balaji growth of ~15%).


■ Maintain Hold – TP Rs 89 - Upsides appeared capped in the short term JPA’s Q3FY12 profit beat is driven by E&C vertical led by one time milestone payment. We believe adjusting for the one off milestone payment in Q3FY12, the sustainable margins of this segment will be close to 18% & we model in the same for FY13E. JPA plans to divest stake in its Gujarat & AP cement plants (target capacity of ~ 10 mtpa) to de-leverage its stretched balance sheet (FY12 E standalone D:E of 2.2X) & hence the divestment remain key trigger. However we believe the sharp run up over the last month (+43%) partially factors in the positive of divestment & hence valuations at 8.2x FY13E EBITDA, leaves very little upside. Maintain a Hold rating with a target price of Rs 89.




RISH TRADER

>Towards the end of global imbalances?: The term "global imbalances" is mainly used for the clash between the US structural external deficit and the structural external surplus of emerging and oil-exporting countries, in particular China

The term “global imbalances” is mainly used for the clash between the US structural external deficit and the structural external surplus of emerging and oil-exporting countries, in particular China. We will look at the conventional analyses of this situation of global imbalances.


But we show that there are currently a number of mechanisms that could eventually wipe out these global imbalances:


■ the much faster growth in domestic demand in emerging countries than in the United States;
■ the rise in production costs in emerging countries, relative to OECD countries;
■ the incipient reindustrialisation in the United States;
■ the reduction in the US energy dependence on oil-exporting countries thanks to the increasing role of shale gas.


This will in particular lead to a slowdown in global monetary creation and to a greater stability of asset prices and exchange rates.


To read full report: GLOBAL IMBALANCES
RISH TRADER

>STRATEGY: Rally Reality – 30% in 33 days! Seen it before?


■ 30% in 33 days! Seen it before? — Actually Yes. This rally – 33 trading days so far, and currency adjusted - only makes the middle of the 5 big rallies in the last decade. It is however clearly a very impressive rally: leader in local currency (+20%) and currency adjusted terms (+30%) amongst large EM/DM markets, India’s strongest USD rally vs. EMs, and more broad-based (i.e. mid/cap and Small cap participation) than the index’s performance would suggest. All this is good (and past), so we look closer at the reality of this rally, and (more importantly) question how real it is.


■ The Reality of this Rally — How does this rally stack up against the previous 5 rallies? It is a) more broad-based (relative mid-cap/small cap performance is second best) b) starting from a relatively higher valuation (1yr fwd PE: 12.6x – second highest; range:9x-16.5x) c) Outperformance is led by the usual sector suspects (Materials: 16%, Industrials:10%, Financials: 8% and as always d) has been led by strong foreign Inflows, though this time there has been aggressive domestic selling (almost 50% of foreign buying). Not enough to say its ‘different this time’, but there are differences.


■ Real? Will it Rally on? — India’s had a few false starts - (11/21 15%+ rallies have petered out. But the four that have lasted 100 days have generated a 48% median local currency return (55% averages) and volumes have gone up sharply (86%). So far, the domestics haven’t even participated; equities worldwide continue to rally , and Citi’s Global and EM strategist expect the equity rally to go on:+11% for global equities, +15- 20% for EM, from here. Will India continue to lead the rally, or at least rally along?


■ Fundamentally, we believe India's fair value is now near — The Indian market, at 18,154 on the Sensex is almost at our fundamental December 2012 target of 18,400. We are holding our target. We would continue to position our portfolio relatively aggressively and for risk (and stay away from defensives): see overshoot risks on the upside rather than the downside. But we believe the markets’ move now prices in a quickly recovering economy/corporate sector; this will likely take time (3/4QFY13), and the market will likely wait for most 2012 for the economy to catch up.


To read the report: RALLY REALITY
RISH TRADER