>Towards the end of global imbalances?: The term "global imbalances" is mainly used for the clash between the US structural external deficit and the structural external surplus of emerging and oil-exporting countries, in particular China

The term “global imbalances” is mainly used for the clash between the US structural external deficit and the structural external surplus of emerging and oil-exporting countries, in particular China. We will look at the conventional analyses of this situation of global imbalances.


But we show that there are currently a number of mechanisms that could eventually wipe out these global imbalances:


■ the much faster growth in domestic demand in emerging countries than in the United States;
■ the rise in production costs in emerging countries, relative to OECD countries;
■ the incipient reindustrialisation in the United States;
■ the reduction in the US energy dependence on oil-exporting countries thanks to the increasing role of shale gas.


This will in particular lead to a slowdown in global monetary creation and to a greater stability of asset prices and exchange rates.


To read full report: GLOBAL IMBALANCES
RISH TRADER