Monday, February 9, 2009


The Dow closed positive and other Asian markets are up as well. Our GDP numbers are slated for
release today and will play a crucial role in determining the near-term market trend. Also, our IIP data is likely to be announced tomorrow. The US stimulus package is expected tonight which will serve as a short-term trigger for markets globally. Our outlook remains bearish for the short term as the US economy remains critical. For the day we expect the market to open up but volatility is likely to set in.

To see full report: Market insight 9-02-2009

National Aluminium (CITI)

Downgrade to Sell: Persisting Oversupply; High Inventories

* Target price cut — We are cutting our target price to Rs124 (from Rs230) as
we cut EPS 29-51% for FY09-11E on lower LME price forecasts. We continue to
value Nalco at 8x P/E, the lower end of its six-year trading band, given our
cautious outlook on aluminium and recent pressure to alumina prices. At our
TP, Nalco would trade at 2.2x EV/EBITDA. Over the past three months, the
stock has outperformed the Sensex by ~18%. Downgrade to Sell (3M).

* Change in aluminium outlook — Though aluminium prices have cut deep into
the cost curve, persisting oversupply and high inventories (2.8mt) leave little
room for prices recovering before 2010. Although Chinese smelters (a third of
global production) are at the top end of the cost curve, shutdowns have been
stalled due to a cut in export taxes and power subsidies by provincial bodies.

To see full report: NATALU

>Bank of Baroda (CITI)

3Q09 Results: Impressive – Quantitatively and Qualitatively

* Up 41% - well ahead, and strong — BOB has reported a strong quarter; profits
up 41% (19% above expectations), margins are up, fees remain robust, and
asset quality holds steady. This is a strong mix; while boosted by rate gains,
does reflect a healthy and profitable quarter, in a challenging environment.

* Growth, Asset quality and Capital -- All there, as is management confidence— BS
is the strength of the quarter; against a weakening economy, asset quality
holds steady, loan growth remains strong (international loans grow faster than
domestic), capital appears comfortable. Importantly, management confident on
outlook; but a tough environment suggests greater investor caution.

* Margins expand, fees robust, and the market impacts — The P&L is also
impressive; margins expand and BOB is now almost in line with industry
standard, fees continue to growth 25%, and trading gains provide a boost (with
offsets on equity and offshore bond portfolio mark-downs). While there is
probably upside from here; all drivers appear to be in order.

To see full report: BOB