Wednesday, May 2, 2012

>The Business- Impact of a Greek Euro-Zone Exit

Risk Insights
• Although the situation has improved in the past weeks, especially in Italy and Spain, the euro-zone debt crisis is still far from over.

• Low competitiveness, rigid labour markets and high household and company debt levels continue to aggravate the crisis, which started as a mere sovereign-debt crisis in Greece two years ago.

• An immediate disorderly Greek default was avoided in March 2012, but because of the uncertain political outlook the picture can change quickly.

• Worryingly, and despite being on track with the EU-imposed reform programme, Portugal seems to need a second bailout package in the near-to medium-term.

• A complete break up of the euro zone seems unlikely, given the high costs.

• The intervention of the ECB has increased the resilience of the European banking sector and reduced the danger of contagion from Greece.

• If Greece undergoes a disorderly default and leaves the euro zone, the consequences for Greece will be extremely harmful, at least in the short term, and business operations in Greece will break down almost completely.

• We recommend increased vigilance, especially with regard to payment and credit risks.

To read report in detail: GREEK-EURO ZONE