>TATA STEEL: The worst may be behind, well poised for recovery; retain Buy

What's changed
Key takeaways from Tata Steel’s 3QFY12 results conference call: (1) Group steel deliveries at 5.84mnt (-5% qoq), were impacted by seasonal weakness and market uncertainties in Europe and floods in Thailand. (2) Europe business witnessed price declines on weak demand while higher priced raw materials impacted profitability, resulting in the company making significant mark-to-market provisions on stock. However, this implies that with steel prices recovering, there is low risk of further inventory write-downs. European demand has picked up with prices inching up. The company is targeting to retain FY13E volumes in Europe at FY12E levels, despite planned temporary closure of the BF4 at Port Talbot for rebuild. (3) India business saw stable prices with long product and downstream prices higher than previous quarters. Margins were compressed on account of higher raw material (imported coking coal) prices. (4) The company expects to commission the Jamshedpur brownfield expansion by March 2012 and
expects to add 1mn tons to current production levels in FY13. (5) European restructuring measures are progressing per plan, leading to about 2500 redundancies. (6) The Benga coking coal project in Mozambique is expected to commence despatches from March 2012.


Implications
We cut our FY12E-14E EPS by -1% to -11% on inventory write-down, and higher cost assumptions. But we believe the worst may be behind in both India and European profitability, and with the Jamshedpur expansion on track, the company is well positioned for a strong earnings recovery in FY13E.


Valuation
We reiterate our Buy rating and lower our 12-month P/B-based TP to Rs550 (from Rs552) on lower earnings estimates.



Key risks
Slower-than-expected demand recovery in Europe, higher-than-expected raw material costs