>INDIA STRATEGY: Uttar Pradesh State Elections(February 2012): Too Close to Call

We hosted Dorab Sopariwala, India's leading psephologist, on a call with investors: The topics were the ongoing state elections, the likely results, and their implications for national politics. Here is a synopsis of the discussion.


UP elections – by the far the most crucial: Of the five states going to poll, Uttar Pradesh is the most important one given its sheer size. However, the results may be too close to call. No doubt the turnout has increased but seasonally adjusted (given the shift in timing to the winter months), the increase is about 5%. That said, it is hard to tell who has come to vote and hence which party may benefit. Tight fights seem to be of the order given how small vote swings seem to be affecting seat count.


A complex election and difficult result to predict:


• The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) suffers from incumbency, but Chief Minister Mayawati has tried to overcome it by aggressively churning her candidates. She has also has seemingly delivered by doubling the state's domestic product in nominal terms over the past five years (real growth of around 7%, which is not necessarily a strong relative performance). Still, there could be voter fatigue due to corruption allegations.


• The Samajwadi Party (SP) has a fresh tailwind with Akhilesh Yadav and does not have the headwind of being an incumbent as it did in 2007. If the results are close, Ajit Singh's party (currently a Congress ally) could play a prominent role in government formation.


• Both the Congress and the BJP suffer from lack of local leadership and grassroots presence in the state. The reason UP elections get complicated is that it is a four-way fight, unlike most other states which are straight fights and hence easier to predict.


To read the full report: INDIA STRATEGY
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