>BAJAJ CORP: New product launches in niche segments and inorganic acquisitions; Sustainable growth of its flagship brand "Almond drops"; New foray into Light Hair Oil segment

We initiate coverage on Bajaj Corp Ltd as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 136 (target 14x FY13 P/E). At CMP of ` 99, the stock is trading at 12.7x and 10.2x its estimated earnings for FY12 & FY13 representing a potential upside of ~37.4% over a period of 15 months. Strong sustainable volume growth and pricing power of its flagship brand “Almond Drops”, new product launches in niche segments and inorganic acquisitions should lead to an earnings growth of 30.6% CAGR over the period FY11 to FY13. Bajaj Corp Ltd is one of the fastest growing companies in the FMCG space with market leadership in the niche “Light Hair Oil” category and over the years has successfully consolidated its market share.

■ Brand leadership, product differentiation, and extensive network reach has helped BCL maintain its market leadership

The Light Hair Oil (LHO) segment (~13% of total hair oil market) has witnessed ~25.5% CAGR (in value terms) and ~17.6% CAGR (in volume terms) over the period of 6 years since 2006-07. Further this segment is expected to grow at ~17% CAGR over FY12-14 and Bajaj Corp with its offering of Almond Drops hair oil ADHO (~93% of total sales) is best placed to benefit from this opportunity. Over the years, ADHO has enhanced its market share to 53.9% (+1360 bps since FY08) and has ambitious plans to further consolidate its position in this segment to ~65% over the next five years. Slew of measures like sachets to penetrate the rural market (being the only player), targeted advertising, product differentiation through use of glass bottle packaging (which reinforces its value proposition) and market expansion strategies to convert coconut hair oil users to the higher value added LHO category should stand the company in good stead to achieve its growth targets. 

■  New foray into the fast growing cooling hair oil segment to help diversify product portfolio and boost revenues

Leveraging on its strong presence in the LHO segment and the distribution strength of over 2 mn retail outlets, BCL is looking at strategic brand extension and new product launches. In line with this strategy, the company has forayed into the ~ ` 640 crore cooling hair oil segment with the launch of Kailash Parbat Cooling oil (KPCO). The initial response has been quite promising with KPCO attaining a volume market share of 1% within the first quarter of its launch. However we have not factored this in our model and represents an upside risk to our estimates.

■ Prospective inorganic growth on the back of cash availability

In its initiative to grow through acquisitions BCL is scouting for brands in the personal care segment in the domestic, as well as, international market. The huge cash pile of ~ ` 346.7 crore is a strong advantage and can be put to work to undertake a sizable acquisition which would catapult the company into a higher growth phase. This would not only help de-risk the brand portfolio but would help diversify the revenue stream and improved profitability leading to better shareholder returns which in turn should lead to higher valuations.

Valuation

At the CMP of ` 99, BCL is trading at 12.7x and 10.2x its estimated earnings for FY12 and FY13. We initiate coverage on Bajaj Corp Ltd as a BUY with a Price Objective of ` 136 (14x FY13 EPS) over a period of 15 months.

We have valued the stock at ~35.5% discount to Marico‟s valuation of 21.7x FY13 EPS (as per Ventura estimates). BCL‟s earnings are expected to grow at a 30.6% CAGR over the forecast period FY12-13 which is far ahead of the FMCG sector‟s growth. Strong cash generation ability and the better visibility of its earnings over the next two to three years are an added attraction.

To read the full report: BAJAJ CORP

RISH TRADER