>Southwest Monsoon (EMKAY)

Sustained recovery
The advancement of the southwest monsoon has seen sustained momentum from last week. The rainfall for the week ended 04 August, 2010 was, ~16% above its long period average (LPA). The cumulative rainfall for the week ended 04 August, 2010 stood at ~2% below its LPA. The number of divisions experiencing excess/normal rainfall increased to 31 from 28 of last week, while those experiencing scanty rainfall dropped to 5 from 8 of last week.

Rain dependent and rain-fed areas cumulatively improve
For the week ended 04 August, 2010, cumulative rainfall in rain dependent areas stood at 1.5% above their LPA and rain-fed areas improved to 6.3% below LPA. Weekly rainfall also improved for rain-fed areas at ~13% above LPA.

Parts of north and east India cumulatively deficient
Cereal producing regions: east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal are cumulatively below their LPA by more than ~25%. Excepting West Bengal, weekly rainfall for these regions is deficient/scanty. Jharkhand, Assam & Meghalaya are also receiving deficient rainfall.

Reservoir levels pick up
The current reservoir levels are at 34% of their full reservoir level (FRL) against their LPA of 37% of FRL. The current storage level is ~92% of its 10 year average as opposed to ~82% last week.

Forecast rainfall for parts of central and east India
Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Orissa are likely to experience normal/excess rainfall over the coming week. While the southern states may receive poor rainfall the coming week, the west coast would see considerable rainfall.

Steady increase in the sowing of rice and cereals
Cropped area under rice and cereals are increasing in a steady manner. Area sown for all the major crops, excepting oilseeds is ~10-15% higher than the same period last year. Deficient rainfall in some of the cereal producing regions may affect the rate of sowing; unless the next couple of weeks, off-sets this.

To read the full report: SOUTHWEST MONSOON