>Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Forecasts Normal Monsoon in 2010

■ IMD continues to expect ‘normal’ rains this year: According to the second stage forecast for the 2010 monsoon released by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 25, rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±4% compared with 98% of LPA estimated in April earlier. In terms of spatial distribution, IMD expecting aggregate rainfall as follows: North-east India (103% of region’s LPA), North-west India (102% of region’s LPA), South Peninsula (102% of region’s LPA), and Central India (99% of region’s LPA), respectively. In the press release, IMD mentioned that ‘there is very high probability (about 60%) for the La Niña conditions to develop during the monsoon season, which favors stronger than normal monsoon’.

■ However, actual rainfall is tracking below normal: The total countrywide rainfall weighted by cropped area was 21% below normal for the week ended June 23, compared to 8% below normal for the week ended June 16. According to IMD, on an all-India area-weighted basis, cumulative rainfall was 11% below normal up to June 23 compared to 5% below normal in the previous
week.

■ Northern and Eastern regions are getting below normal rains: Cumulative rainfall in the Western region was 3% above normal up to June 23. However, the Southern, Northern and Eastern regions received 2%, 19%, and 22% below normal rainfall up to June 23, respectively. The cropped area affected by below-normal rainfall was 55.1% as of the week ended June 23. This compares with 82.8% during the same period in 2009.

To read the full report: MONSOON UPDATE