Friday, July 2, 2010

>GOLD: Forecast 2010

Given the surge in prices in late 2009, it is not surprising that the 2010 forecast prices are all much higher than last year’s forecast prices. With the gold values hitting a new all-time high in December 2009, the 2010 forecast average for gold at $1,199, is well above the 2009 forecast level of $880. There has been an even sharper rise in silver predictions from $11.58 last year to $19.02 in 2010. Average PGM forecasts have also increased dramatically: for platinum from $996 to $1,558 and for palladium from $217.9 to $446.5. The forecasts are well above the year averages recorded for 2009 as shown above: for the four metals together, the average increase for 2010 forecasts relative to the average prices in 2009 is 38%. Compared to the level in early January, 2010 the increase is 5.4%.

Trading ranges are expected to be wide for all four metals in 2010.
All forecasters expect gold to hit record highs this year, with a predicted average high of $1,394. Lower central bank sales are at the forefront of contributors’ predictions.

Compared with January levels, the most bullish view is on silver, with some predictions that the price will reach the $30 level in 2010. The major influencing factor for silver emerging from the contributors’ analysis was portfolio diversification. Improving industrial demand is expected to play a role in the advance of silver prices. In platinum, contributors predict $1,843 as the average high, $300 above the level in early January. The average increase for the year as a whole relatively to early January is only 1.8%, well below the corresponding increases for the other three metals. Platinum ETFs are expected to be a major factor in the price of platinum. In palladium, contributors, on average, see the market reaching a peak of $570.5. Higher investor interest and industrial demand are reasons contributors think palladium will have an exceptional year in 2010: the forecast increase relative to the 2009 average is no less than 69%.

To read the full report: GOLD