>No reason to get too enthusiastic about the US economy

Many investors are becoming very optimistic about the US economy, particularly in view of the consumption figures from early 2010, and are rebalancing their portfolios as a result. We believe that this "enthusiasm" for the US economy is very excessive:
− the pick-up in consumption is due to:
• faster adjustment of employment in the United States than in Europe;
• real dissaving (spending of monetary savings);
− it is also true that, thanks to the geographical structure, US exports are recovering more than those of the euro zone;
− however, fundamentally, the situation with regard to the correction of fiscal deficits, credit, wage incomes, investment and real estate is not better in the United States than in the euro zone; there is not that much asymmetry between the two regions in a medium-term perspective;
− this must be adjusted for the fact that potential growth is higher in the United States.

To read the full report: US ECONOMY