>MONSOON CONJECTURE: INDIAN MONSOON, PRONE TO DISEMBARK NORMALLY AND BEFORE TIME….

Indian Monsoon, a vital role player of Indian economy is seems to be arriving 10-12 days before the usual days. This prophecy is being done according to the current weather conditions shown in southern part of the country. Monsoon always being playing a mockery with Indian economy, because metrological department always being chasing it for the right forecasting but except few occasions it didn't matched the predictions of weather departments and actual rain happened in past years. This time again the weather department is expecting the sooner than scheduled period of time. Actually the fourmonth monsoon season in India usually begins on June 1 with the first showers in Kerala and covers the rest of India and neighboring countries by July. But last year, the June- September season, which delivers 75-90 percent of the total rainfall in most parts of India, was the worst since 1972, stoking inflation and making India the world's top buyer of edible oils and a big sugar importer.

Indications of Early Monsoon
This time anticipation of earlier monsoon is being done by a former director at the India Meteorological Department and professor emeritus, department of atmospheric science, at the Cochin University of Science and Technology. He said the forecast was based on a phenomenon known as "pre-monsoon rain peak" in which the temperature of the Bay of Bengal off the east coast of the subcontinent rises about 40 days before the monsoon and clouds near the equator move north to bring rains on the southern tip of India. He also said that, when monsoon rains are delayed, this phenomenon occurs in early May, but this year it was observed in the first half of April, signaling early arrival of rains.

A senior weather scientist at a government body also agreed there is a correlation between the "pre-monsoon rain peak" and the onset of the monsoon, but there may be a gap of up to four days between the forecast based on this phenomenon and the start of rains. If rains begin before the usual date, it helps early sowing and harvesting of crops such as rice, soybean, and corn and shields them from any dry spell towards the end of the season. The Indian monsoon, forecast to be normal this year, is keenly watched by traders and analysts as the country, one of the world's top producers and consumers of sugar, wheat, rice and edible oils, counts on rains to irrigate 60 percent of its farms.

To read the full report: MONSOON