>POWER UTILITIES: Eleventh Plan Capacity addition (MOTILAL OSWAL)

■ Capacity addition of 63GW for Eleventh plan (FY08-12), plus 12GW of projects on "Best effort basis": Based on revised estimates by CEA (in February 2010), XI plan capacity addition target has been maintained at 75GW, comprising of 63GW of firm projects and 12GW of projects on "Best effort basis". This represents an achievement of 84% v/s initial targets, and is significantly higher than the 54%, 48% and 52% achievement in the Eight, Ninth and Tenth plan respectively. Also, revised capacity addition targets in XI plan are ~3x of actual capacity addition of 21GW in Tenth plan.

■ Private sector capacity addition at 36GW (v/s 11GW estimated initially), share in capacity addition at 36%: Contribution to capacity addition by private sector in XI Plan now stands at 26.7GW, v/s 10.8GW in August 2007; and share has increased from 13.7% of planned capacity addition to 35.7% currently. Central sector has lagged behind with targeted capacity addition of 25.8GW now, v/s 40GW in August 2007. Also the targeted share of the Central sector has declined from 50.7% in August 2007 to 34.4% currently.

■ NTPC leads in total capacity addition, Adani / Lanco leads amongst private sector players: As per the revised XI Plan capacity addition target, NTPC is expected to add 13.8GW of capacity including 1GW of projects on best effort basis. Adani Power is the leading private sector player with capacity addition of 6.6GW (including however 5.3GW on best effort basis). Other players with sizable capacity addition are: Lanco Infratech 3.3GW (including 133MW on best efforts basis), Sterlite Energy 2.4GW (including 1.8GW on best effort basis), NHPC (2GW), Reliance Power 1.9GW (including 1.3GW on best effort basis), Tata Power 2.9GW (including 1.6GW on best effort basis), JSW Energy 1.8GW etc.

■ Merchant capacity at 10GW+ by FY13E: Merchant capacity is expected to go up from
3.1GW in FY10E to 10GW+ by FY13E, based on the announced capacities by various players
(excluding NTPC's proposed sale of unallocated capacity on merchant basis). Players with
meaningful merchant capacities by end of FY13 inlcudes: NTPC 1.5-1.8GW, Jindal Power
1.5GW, Adani Power 1.3GW, Jaiprakash Power 1.2-1.5GW, JSW Energy 1-1.5GW, etc.

To read the full report: POWER UTILITIES