>A normal monsoon for 2010? (EDELWEISS)

Weather forecasts see high probability of normal monsoon in 2010
• After a dismal performance by the southwest monsoon in 2009, recording a rainfall deficiency ~22% of long period averge (LPA), southwest monsoon 2010, for India, is expected to be ‘largely’ normal, as forecasted by The International Research Institure (IRI) for Climate and Society.

• As per their latest available forecasts for 2010, there is probability of delay in arrival of South-West monsoon, with the initial phase of onset and advancement witnessing below normal rainfall, especially in North coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha, Orissa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal.

• The forecast however, sees high probability of revival in rainfall during the months of May, June and July (the period of maturity of rains), with most of these months recording normal rainfall. The fully mature monsoon (during the months of June, July and August) is expected to be normal.

• The prevailing El Niño condition over the Central Pacific ocean is expected to start fading out from July onwards. An El Niño condition, which is essentially the warming up of the Pacific waters, is said to weaken Asian monsoon. It had been one of the main reasons for the occurrence of three droughts in India in the recent past. Generally, the year following an El Niño year is considered to be favourable for Indian monsoons.

To read the full report: MONSOON 2010