>The end of nuclear apartheid (CLSA)

India’s nuclear power capacity at 4GW (3% share) was constrained by poor uranium reserves. With NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) waiver in Sep-08, which allows import of uranium and equipment, India’s nuclear power plan is set to take off. 6GW is in construction and another 10- 12GW will be added by 2020. New capacity adds are targeted to double in the following decade to 28-41GW. Like China, India is targeting technology transfer, local manufacturing and potentially exports. BHEL, L&T, NTPC, Areva, Toshiba and Paladin are the likely beneficiaries.

The end of nuclear apartheid sets the stage for strong growth
■ Following its first nuclear test explosion in 1974, India was banned from trading in nuclear materials by the NSG. Given its poor quantity and quality of uranium resources this hampered India’s nuclear plans.

■ In September 2008, the NSG adopted an exemption for nuclear exports to India, making it the first such country that has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

■ Since then, India’s nuclear power capacity has taken off. It currently has ten nuclear reactors with total capacity of 5,960MW under construction.

■ India has also signed nuclear-trade arrangements with a number of countries, including France, USA, UK, Kazakhstan, Canada, Russia and others.

Ambitious but achievable goals
■ To achieve India’s target of 20-22GW nuclear power capacity by 2020, construction of 10GW should start in next 4-5 years which could be easily achieved/exceeded.

■ Government targets nuclear’s share in total energy at 8.6% by 2032 and 16.6% by 2052. The capacity addition is targeted to double in the decade ending 2030. India will be the second largest installer of nuclear power equipment globally, after China.

■ India’s government has identified a number of future projects, with in-principle approvals for many of the project sites already been granted.

Key beneficiaries – BHEL, L&T, NTPC, Areva, Toshiba and Paladin
■ BHEL and L&T have experience in building nuclear power plants in India and would be the key suppliers for 40% of capacity added till 2020, based on domestic technology.

■ The technology for remaining 60% would come from global players. Like China, India has stressed on local manufacturing and technology transfer for these reactors. NPCIL, BHEL and L&T will likely partner with foreign players for this.

■ Areva, Toshiba-Westinghouse, GE-Hitachi, MHI and KEPCO are the contestants for future supplies to India. We believe Areva and Toshiba are the likely winners.

■ NTPC and Nalco are likely to participate via JV with NPCIL, accelerating capacity addition. Paladin Energy will benefit from rapid growth in India’s uranium imports.

To read the full report: NUCLEAR POWER