>AMBUJA CEMENTS LIMITED (INDIA INFOLINE)

■ Pricing concern looms despite improved regional mix
All India retail prices have fallen 5-30% qoq Sep-Dec'09 period in response to higher supply, The pricing pressure has been severe in Southern (up to 40% correction) and Central (down ~25%) regions, where ACL has a miscule presence.

■ CY09-11 revenue CAGR to lag volume growth of 8.4%
We model in sales volume of 21mtpa, a yoy increase of 12.6% and 4.4% in CY10 and CY11 respectively driven by completion of major capex at Bhatapara, Rauri, Dadri and Nalgarh units.

■ Margin to improve post Bhatapara plant commencement
ACL meets its partial requirement of clinker from ouside as a result of which it's 9M CY09 margin stood at 28.2%, significantly lower than to its peers like ACC (34.6%) and Ultratech (32.7%).

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