>POWER GENERATION (MOTILAL OSWAL)

October 2009 all India generation up ~1% YoY, PLF down 86bp YoY
During October 2009, all-India generation stood at 64.1BUs (v/s 63.8BUs in October 2008), while overall PLF was down 86bp to 62.5% (v/s 63.4% in October 2008). Coaland- lignite-based power generation declined 4% YoY to 44.4BUs (69% of total generation) at PLF of 74.9% (down by 181bp YoY), whereas gas-based generation increased 25% YoY to 8.1BUs (13% of total generation) at PLF of 65.9% (up 714pp YoY). Hydro-power generation declined marginally to 9.8BUs, while nuclear power generation increased by 31% YoY to 1.7BUs.

During YTDFY10, all-India generation increased 6.6% to 443.8BUs (v/s 416.4BUs in YTDFY09). Coal-based generation increased 6% to 307BUs (v/s 289BUs in YTDFY09) at a PLF of 71.7% (down 260bp YoY) whereas gas-based generation increased 34% to 54.5BUs (v/s 40.7BUs in YTDFY09) at a PLF of 66.6%.

Adani Power: PLF of 74% for October 2009
During October 2009, Adani Power (APL) has reported generation of 178MUs from the first unit of 330MW of Mundra Phase-1 commissioned in June 2009. We calculate PLF at 74%, based on the reported generation by the company. During YTDFY10, the company has reported net generation of 451MUs, consisting of commercial sale of 322MUs; the balance represents in-firm power. Based on our interaction with management, we understand that Unit-1 has been operating at ~90% PLF since mid-October, 2009.

NTPC: generation up 3.5 YoY, PLF flat at 86%
During October 2009, NTPC net generation increased 3.5% YoY to 17.6BUs (v/s 17.0BUs in October 2008), while PLF for coal-based projects was flat at 86%. During YTDFY10, net generation of NTPC increased 1.7% to 611.7BUs (v/s 601.7BUs in YTDFY09).

PLF for gas based projects on uptrend
■ GVK Power reported PLF of 87% for JP 1 and 2, while PLF for Gautami Power Project stood at 63.3%.
■ GMR’s barge-mounted project reported lower PLF at 37% for October 2009, while its Chennai Project reported a decline in PLF to 61.3% from 72.5% in October 2008). Vemagiri Power Project reported 99.6% PLF.
■ JSPL sustained its higher PLF for Chhattisgarh Power Project Post maintenance shutdown in 2QFY10. PLF stood at 98.2% v/s 96.6% in October 2008.
■ Reliance Infrastructure’s Dahanu Project (500MW) reported PLF of 104.9% (flat YoY), while PLF for Samalkot Project (220MW) in AP was meager at 3.4% (v/s 53% in October 2008). Kochi Power Project (200MW) did not operate during the month.
■ Tata Power’s Trombay unit reported PLF of 72.5% v/s 95.6% in October 2008, while its Karnataka IPP reported PLF of 50.3% (v/s 77.3% in October 2008). Tata Steel CPP operated at 72.3% PLF (v/s 73.7 % in October 2008).
■ Torrent Power Project existing units reported YoY improvement of ~270bp in PLF to 88%, while Sugen reported healthy PLF of over 96.5%.

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