>Indian Telecom(HSBC)

􀀗 New players at a structural disadvantage
– their spectrum is less efficient
􀀗 Rising competition may cause near-term
price disruption; Tata-DoCoMo’s persecond
plan is most revenue-destructive
􀀗 Bharti remains our top pick and MTNL
our top sell
We analyse the new players and their strategies, and we look
at the trends in 1Q FY10 results. We find the following:
􀀗 As the price war intensifies, investors should focus on
revenue market share and revenue growth, not
subscriber market share.
􀀗 The Tata-DoCoMo plan to charge per second (rather
than per minute) is the most disruptive; if all the telcos
followed suit – one already has – we estimate it would
lower the sector’s revenue c10-15%.
􀀗 Newcomers are operating on the less efficient 1,800
MHz spectrum, which requires more base stations
(major telcos use 900 MHz).
􀀗 Aircel’s access to funding is negative for the established
players; Etisalat’s strong balance sheet is a concern, but
its launch is still 12-18 months away.
􀀗 Incumbents’ better-than-expected results over the past
few quarters have been driven by margin improvements.
However, this trend may not be sustainable given the
increasing competition. Margin pressure may impact capex
spending; incumbents could lower capex guidance.
􀀗 We remain cautious on the sector given the rising
competitive intensity. Bharti Airtel remains our top pick.
We remain Neutral (V) on Idea Cellular and Underweight
(V) on RCOM, MTNL, and TTML.

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