Tuesday, August 4, 2009


Which emerging countries have the greatest risk of exposure to triple crisis?

The impact of the international crisis on emerging economies initially entailed considerable pressure on foreign exchange, in similar fashion to a crisis, but this also entailed a banking crisis.

We intend to evaluate the risk of a sovereign debt crisis for a group of emerging economies, and to this end we have come up with a composite sovereign vulnerability indicator produced from weightings on six variables in relation to solvency, liquidity, currency and governance.

Our results show considerable exposure to the risk of a sovereign debt crisis in Iceland, Latvia, Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania and Ukraine, whereas there is little risk of a sovereign debt crisis in Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Venezuela), Asia (Indonesia and Malaysia) and South Africa. In all other cases only average risk is perceived (Croatia, Bulgaria, Poland, the Philippines, Romania, Argentina, Czech Republic, India and South Korea).

To see full report: FLASH ECONOMICS