>SPECIAL REPORT (ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

Decline in oil consumption due to the price rises in 2007 - 2008: Temporary or permanent?

The surge in the oil price in 2007 and early 2008 caused a drastic decline in global demand for oil that still continues today, even though the oil price has fallen dramatically.

We seek to ascertain whether this decline in demand is temporary or permanent, and thus whether it corresponds to a structural change of behaviour. The prospects for the oil price for the next few years are obviously very different in the two cases.

In order to analyse this issue, we look at:
- trends in global demand for oil in the 1980s, after the oil shocks in the 1970s;

- the trend in oil-consuming activities (industry, housing, transport);

- the trend in the efficiency in the use of oil (consumption per car or per inhabitant for example).

We conclude:
- that the short-term changes in oil demand (decline for 2 to 3 years, then recovery) after a sharp rise in the price are linked to the cycle (industrial, transport);

- but that periods of rise in the oil price, even followed by declines, lead to an irreversible improvement in energy efficiency in transport and industry, as well as overall.

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