>SPECIAL REPORT (ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

The considerable uncertainty surrounding the oil price (USD 40 or USD 100 at the end of the year?) and its effects

If the spot price of oil again reflects the market equilibrium, with speculative stockpiling coming to a halt, it will drop to a very low level (USD 40 per barrel?); however, speculative stockpiling may continue, fuelled by better news about the economy and by the enormous available liquidity, and the oil price may continue to rise (to USD 80 or USD 100?)

This enormous uncertainty surrounding the oil price has massive consequences on any prospects and forecasts concerning:
− the situation of countries relying on oil production (Russia);
− the trend in prices and consumption in OECD countries.

See charts in report on the following headings:

1 - Oil price and situation in spot market

2 - Massive uncertainty surrounding the oil price at end- 2009

3 - Major effects on economic prospects

To see full report: SPECIAL REPORT