>India Essentials (MACQUARIE RESEARCH)

India Essentials

Dabur (Downgrade to Neutral)
Nice... but not at this price

We revisit our thesis on Dabur. While longer-term prospects remain strong, we believe the stock is expensive post the recent rally. We downgrade Dabur to Neutral from Outperform while maintaining our target price of Rs100. Strong results highlight core business potential: Dabur has posted strong 4Q09 results with 20% topline (13–14% volume) and 31% bottom-line growth. Growth rates likely to decline: While the 31% growth in earnings was above our as well as street expectation, we believe Dabur will have to contend with a tough base post 2Q FY3/10.

Macquarie Commodities
Base metals stock changes; some more bullish trends emerging

The latest trends in reported stock changes are more bullish in copper, nickel and zinc (declining stocks) and less bearish in aluminium (stocks still increasing, but at a slowing trend rate). Latest news Base metals traded sharply higher on Wednesday, as April private employment figures in the US finished above expectations. Copper recovered from Tuesday's losses to close 4.7% higher, despite a 1.8% stock increase, as workers went on strike at Xstrata's Lomas Bayas mine (65ktpa). China's iron ore imports in April rose to a record 53.5mt, according to preliminary reports from the Ministry of Transport.

India Market performance

This section includes detailed information on :

• Market Performance
• Fixed Income, currencies, commodities
• ADR/GDR (US$)
• Daily net flows (US$m)

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