>Special Report (ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

Structural problems should not be overlooked

Before the markets become too euphoric because of a few green shoots in the environment, it has to be pointed out that there are (at least) five structural problems that have not been solved:

− deleveraging by the private sector,
− the cost of medium-term loans,
− the deterioration in the financial situation of companies and in the labour market,
− restoring fiscal solvency,
− the shortfall in the supply of commodities if growth picks up.

These problems will not be solved in 2010, and the scenario of a robust recovery in growth in 2010 in our opinion is therefore unconvincing, and far less likely than that of a W-shaped recovery.

To see full report: SPECIAL REPORT