>Monthly Technical Perspective (EMKAY)

TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE FOR MARCH 2009

NIFTY
Last month Nifty continued its upside journey and on 13th Feb it made a high of 2969, but thereafter we witnessed selling pressure and Nifty broke the support of 2752 and made alow of 2736 on 18th Feb. However there it took support andwas trading very range bound, but again selling pressure was witnessed and Nifty again fell sharply and took support nearto 2661 levels and made a low of 2677. Thereafter it startedits upside journey and retraced 38.20% of the recent fall 2969 to 2677 and made a high of 2797. Finally Nifty closed at 2763 with a loss of 3.86% on m-o-m basis. We still believe that level of 2661 is an important support level for Nifty and if it closes below this level then we may see further downside and it can test 2502 levels. Higher levels if Nifty starts trading above 2797, then it can test 2825 and 2858 which are 50% and 61.80% retracement level of the recent fall from 2969 to 2677. In the short-term Nifty has resistance at 2969, and if it breaks this level then it will turn bullish for short-term.

SENSEX
After making a high of 9724 on 10th Feb, selling pressure was witnessed in Sensex and it started it southbound. On 24th Feb it broke the mentioned support of 8631 and made a low of 8619. Thereafter it took support and recovered some of its losses and almost retraced 38.20% of the recent fall from 9695 to 8619. Finally Sensex closed at 8891 with a loss of 5.66% on m-o-m basis. Now in the immediate- term if Sensex closes below 8619, then we may see further downside and it can test 8316, however on higher levels if Sensex starts trading above 8998, then it can test 9157, and 9284 which are 50%and 61.80% retracement level of the recent fall from 9695 to 8619. Short-term it has resistance at 9724 levels.

BANK NIFTY
Continuing its northbound journey bank Nifty tested our mentioned target of 4519 and made a high of 4602 on 13th Feb. Thereafter huge selling pressure was witnessed and it started its southbound journey. On 18th Feb it broke the immediate term support of 4049 and made a low of 4039, but there also it did not stop its southbound journey and further fell sharply and tested October low of 3799 and made a low of 3758. Finally it closed at 3892 with a loss of 12.66% on m-o-m basis. On the daily chart this index had formed "Bullish engulfing" pattern, thus now if it starts trading above 3976, then it can test 4080 and 4180, which is 38.20% and 50% retracement level of the recent fall from 4602 to 3758. Downside level of 3758 will play as an important support and if it starts trading below this level then it can test its all time low of 3408.

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