>Steel sector (Edelweiss)

Globally, with the financial crisis spilling into the real economy, demand outlook for steel has
taken a severe beating. We expect Chinese steel demand to decline 10% in Q4CY08E, and
virtually stall at 0.8% in CY09E, led by slowdown in construction, appliances, and auto
sectors. With recession/recession-like conditions in the developed world (the US, Japan, and
a few European countries), we see their steel consumption declining 5-20% over CY09-10E;
past recessions have seen US steel consumption drop 10%, on an average. Though growth in
developing nations is likely to mitigate this impact to some extent, global steel consumption
is slated to decline 5.0% in CY09E, contrary to earlier assumption of 6% growth. This will be
first decline since CY98. Recovery in CY10E is likely, but there will still be a decline of 1.0%.

Read full report here Steel sector (Edelweiss)