Friday, November 7, 2008


Monthly view on Sensex
We have looked at Indian equities from the point of view of the Sensex only. This is because Sensex data is available for the last 30 years as compared to the CNX Nifty for which data is comparable for only 14 years.

A grand bull market has unfolded in India in the past 30 years, with intermittent bear markets
commencing after every 8 years. Indian markets have experienced significant bear
markets/consolidation after peaking out higher every 8 years; that is, after forming a high in the
years 1985, 1992, 2000 and 2008, markets have given in to significant corrections.
The Sensex has breached an important 5-year support trendline in the early part of 2008. This breach of trendline, coupled with an 8-year cyclical top, has brought in the current fall.
On the previous occasion when the Sensex breached a similar 5-6 year trendline, in 1992, the Sensex fell/consolidated for the next 3 years upto 1995.

Read full report here SENSEX VIEW (ENAM)