Tuesday, May 29, 2012
>LARSEN & TOUBRO: Larsen & Toubro Electrical & Automation acquires UK-Based Thalest Group".
Investment Highlights
Q4 FY12 Results Update L&T Ltd. has reported net profit of Rs 19204.00 million for the quarter ended on March 31, 2012 as against Rs 15862.10 million in the same quarter last year, an increase of 13.89%. It has reported net sales of Rs 184609.00 million for the quarter ended on March 31, 2012 as against Rs 153842.10 million in the same quarter last year, a rise of 20.00%. Total income grew by 19.18% to Rs 187751.00 million from Rs. 157540.30 million in the same quarter last year. During the quarter, it reported earnings of Rs 31.36 a share.
Recommends Dividend: Larsen & Toubro Ltd has recommended a Dividend of Rs. 16.50/- per share (previous year Rs. 14.50/- per share)
Allotment of Shares: Larsen & Toubro Ltd has allotted 3,80,562 (Three Lakh Eighty Thousand Five Hundred Sixty Two) shares on May 14, 2012 to those grantees who had exercised their options under the Company’s Employee Stock Ownership / Option Schemes.
L&T bags Rs 1937 crore order from GVK for Construction of Road Infrastructure IC of L&T Construction has bagged a major order worth Rs 1937 crore from the GVK group for Design, Engineering, Procurement and Construction for 4 Laning of a major portion of Shivpuri - Dewas section of NH -3 in Madhya Pradesh totaling 235 Km. The project has to be completed in 27 months.
L&T construction has bagged new orders valued over Rs 1880 crore
L&T Construction has bagged new orders valued over Rs 1880 crore across various business segments during the fourth quarter of FY2012.
The Infrastructure IC has secured new orders aggregating to Rs 1048 crore from The Government of West Bengal.
In the Water and Effluent Treatment business unit, L&T Construction has secured orders worth Rs 348 crore from Gujarat Water Infrastructure Limited for providing, supplying, lowering, jointing & commissioning of bulk water transmission by M.S.Pipeline at Surendranagar and Junagadh Districts in Gujarat.
In the Power Transmission & Distribution IC, new orders valued at Rs 263 crore have been bagged from esteemed clients. The orders include construction of e-BOP system for 2x600 MW Coal fired thermal power plant at Singhitarai in Chhattisgarh from a private developer and another order from DMRC for supply.
L&T Construction has also received additional orders worth Rs 221 crore from various ongoing projects.
To read report in detail: LARSEN & TOUBRO
>RELIANCE CAPITAL LIMITED: CCI clearance for sale of 26% stake in MF arm to Nippon Life and reversal of interest rate cycle positive
Impressive Q4FY2012 results & sale of stake in MF and Life Insurance arms are major triggers for RCap
■ CCI clearance for sale of 26% stake in MF arm to Nippon Life and reversal of interest rate cycle positive for RCap: Recently, Competition Commission of India (CCI) approved the proposal of Japanese major Nippon Life to acquire 26% stake in Reliance Capital's (RCap) mutual fund arm Reliance Capital Asset Management (RCAML). CCI is of the opinion that the proposed combination is not likely to have any appreciable adverse effect on competition in India. The deal, (which took place on January 19, 2012) valued at an aggregate amount of Rs.1,450 crore, is the largest FDI deal in any Indian asset management company till date. The transaction pegs the valuation of RCAML at around Rs.5,600 crore ($1.1 billion) or about 7% of its overall assets under management (AUM) at the time of the transaction. This deal has been done at valuations which are better than some of the deals done in the recent past, at valuations of 1.5 - 3.5% of assets. Also, on April 17, 2012, RBI cut the Repo rate, after a period of 3 years, by 50 bps, signaling a reversal in the interest rate cycle, which will be positive for RCap.
■ Sale of 26% stake in Reliance Life Insurance another booster: Nippon Life has already invested $680 million in October 2011 for a 26% stake in Reliance Life Insurance Company (RLIC) pegging the total valuation of Reliance Life Insurance at more than to Rs.11,500 crore (at the then prevailing INR/USD rate). The deal value for a 26% stake in RCAML and RLIC amounts to Rs.4512 crore (according to the USD/INR exchange rate prevailing at the time of the deals), valuing these two businesses alone at Rs.17,100 crore. The market cap of the listed entity Reliance Capital is Rs.7,809 crore only. The proceeds from the stake sales have helped the company reduce its consolidated debt burden which has come down from Rs.20,000 crore in September 2011 to Rs.11,000 crore as on March 31, 2012. Another way to look at it is that based on the valuations of these two deals, the valuation of RCAML and RLIC alone comes to Rs.696/share whereas the stock of RCap, which has a range of other businesses in the financial services sector like broking, wealth management, private equity, etc, is trading at Rs.318/share only, which is a 54% discount to this valuation.
■ Impressive Q4FY2012 results indicate the worst is over for RCap: We believe that the worst is over for RCap. On the back of adverse corporate newsflows, the company’s stock price has been punished very severely, more than it deserves. Also, the company has posted impressive Q4FY2012 results. While total income has increased by 26% YoY to Rs.1995 crore, the company has posted a net profit of Rs.329.3 crore against a net loss of Rs.6.5 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year, mainly due to significant improvement in operating margins contributed by less net claims incurred during Q4FY2012. For FY2012, net profit increased 57% YoY to Rs. 457.8 crore while total income increased 22% YoY to Rs.6,577 crore. For FY2012, the life insurance business posted PBT of Rs.372.6 crore against loss before tax of Rs.129.3 crore in FY2011.
■ Other businesses provide further comfort: The other businesses of the company provide further value to the company. Reliance Securities had 6.85 lakh broking accounts as on March 31, 2012. The distribution business, Reliance Money, has a pan-India distribution network of 6,000 outlets. Reliance General Insurance (RGI) is amongst the leading private sector general insurance companies in India with a private sector market share of 8%. Reliance Commercial Finance had a loan book size of Rs.13,260 crore (USD 2.6 billion), as on March 31, 2012.
■ Risk to View: Any further steep slowdown in the industrial economy could impact its profitability adversely.
■ Valuations: We believe that the stock price of the company has seen significant correction, more than it deserves, of 48% from its 52-week high of Rs.612/, on the back of adverse corporate news flows. We believe that the worst is over for the company and its Q4FY2012 results have been impressive. At the current market price of Rs.318/, the stock is trading at 11.9x its FY2014E EPS of Rs.26.8 / and 0.62x its FY2014E BV of Rs. 512/. We continue to recommend BUY on this stock with a fair value of Rs.440 which is 16.5x FY2014E EPS and 0.86x FY2014E BV.
To read report in detail: RELIANCE CAPITAL
RISH TRADER
>SUZLON ENERGY: Third consecutive year of loss on missed guidance
FY12 performance worse than expectations. Suzlon reported a net loss of INR4.8bn vs consensus of a loss of INR150m and our estimate of a INR339m net loss. When it reported its nine months’ results on 11 February, the company reduced its FY12 sales guidance to INR210-220bn (from INR240-260bn) and its EBIT margin guidance to 5-6% (from 7-8%). We attribute the higher-than-expected net loss to an EBIT margin of 4.2% (old schedule VI format), lower than guidance. Under the new format, EBIT works out to INR11.6bn, for a 5.5% EBIT margin, but the old schedule reporting applies for comparison with guidance,
in our view. Due to the shift in certain items from operating expenses to finance charges (of cINR2.8bn in FY12), both the finance charges and the EBIT margin are higher under the new format. The group’s order book remained flat q-o-q, with c5.7GW of orders valued at INR415bn.
FY13 EBIT guidance is lower than expectations. Suzlon has guided to FY13 revenue of INR270-280bn and an EBIT margin of 6%. On revenue, current consensus and HSBC’s forecast are in the range of INR254-256bn. Our EBIT margin forecast is 6.2%, and consensus is at 6.6%. Our forecasts are based on the old schedule VI; under the new format, our finance charge forecasts might be higher. The company will hold its annual results conference call on 29 May at 16.30 IST, after which we will revisit out forecasts and provide an update.
More funds required for meeting FY13 repayments. In our note of 27 March, Cash crunch seems more severe than expected, we highlighted that Suzlon (ex REpower) has debt repayments of cUSD700m in FY13 and is short cUSD600m (cINR30bn) to meet its repayment obligations. Besides the USD300m being raised from the banks, we believe the remaining deficit will be met through other sources/measures, as highlighted in our note.
Our blended DCF- and RoE-based TP remains INR20. Our DCF-based valuation is INR25.6 (average of two DCF approaches). We blend this with an RoE-implied PB value of INR13.2 to better capture the sector’s market value, reflecting the current uncertainties. This leads us to a target price of INR20 (rounded off). The stock is trading at a high premium to the average peer group on CY12e PE, which we believe is not justified given the debt overhang. At the average global peer group CY12e PE of 15.7x, the stock would be valued
at cINR13.9, which is lower than our target price.
Potential catalysts: (1) Performance below expectations over the next few quarters, (2) a slowdown in orders, (3) further rupee depreciation, and (4) news flow on decline in Suzlon’s Indian market share, given the increasing competition.
To read report in detail: SUZLON ENERGY
RISH TRADER
