>INDIA STRATEGY: A brave new India

A brave new India: We see some of the recent actions of the Indian executive, judiciary and regulators as an attempt to restore the primacy of law and democratic institutions in India. We hope for an equitable, inclusive and transparent development model after eradication of a system based on corruption, cronyism and dysfunctional systems. It may have resulted in strong economic activity but it is also extracted very high invisible costs from the indian economy and society. 


To read report in detail: INDIA STRATEGY
RISH TRADER

>HINDALCO INDUSTRIES: Intention to withdraw from the Evermore recycling JV (55.8% stake) with Alcoa

■  4Q adj. EBITDA/t down 10% yoy — Novelis’ adj. EBITDA fell 17% yoy to $233m (Citi est $256m) largely due to an 8% yoy fall in volumes on destocking (weakness in electronics business) and higher operating costs. EBITDA/t was $316 vs. $350 last year and $312 in 3QFY12 (seasonally weak). FY12 adj EBITDA/t was $353 (+2% yoy). Management has indicated that demand should grow and expects FY13 adj EBITDA to be higher than $1.05bn reported in FY12. Novelis’ focus on technically complex products, strong customer relationships and pass through model should result in steady earnings in forthcoming quarters.


■  Demand muted in 4Q; 1Q to be better — 4Q volumes fell 8% yoy at 738kt due to inventory destocking. Total volumes in FY12 were 2.98mt (-4% yoy) due to falling demand in cans (-1%), light gauge and industrial products; auto demand improved. FY12 trends: 1) Shipments fell 4% yoy in N. America (36% of volumes) on lower can demand − market softness and contract transitions partially offset by higher auto volumes; 2) Europe (32%) shipments fell 3% due to lower demand for industrial/light gauge/foil while can/auto segments improved. Sale of non-core operations and focus on recycling should help going forward. 3) Shipments from Asia (17%) fell 8% due to global uncertainty and fall in electronic products (export
slowdown); can volumes were flat. 4) S. America (14%) volumes were flat.


■  Restructuring — Continuing its restructuring, Novelis has announced: (1) Intention to withdraw from the Evermore recycling JV (55.8% stake) with Alcoa; (2) Closure of its Saguenay plant in Canada effective Aug 12; (3) Divesture of three foil mills in Europe by mid-2012; (4) Novelis now owns 99% in Novelis Korea after it acquire 31.2% for $343m in 3QFY12.


■  Recycling capacity — Novelis has increased recycling content in products from 33% in FY11 to 39% in FY12. Its target is to reach 50% recycling by 2015. To this end Novelis: (1) has commissioned a new recycling center at Alunorf in Europe in Mar 12; (2) plans to invest $250m in Germany for a 400kt recycling facility; (3) plans to expand recycling capacity in Brazil and South Korea.


■  Expansions — Expansion plans include taking Novelis’ effective capacity from 3.3mt to ~4mt by FY16: (1) ~220kt by end CY12 in Brazil to 600kt; (2) ~350kt by end CY13 to take capacity to ~1,000kt in South Korea; (3) ~200kt by mid CY13 at Oswego, NY; (4) ~120kt automotive sheet plant in China by end-CY14. Capex is estimated at $650-700m in FY13 vs $516m in FY12.


To read report in detail: HINDALCO INDUSTRIES
RISH TRADER

>PFIZER: benefits from restructuring (Q4FY12 RESULTS)

Pfizer’s Q4FY12 results were below our expectations. The company reported 17%YoY sales growth against 15% for the industry. The results of the two quarters are not comparable as the previous quarter of 4m period ended 31st March’11. Pfizer’s EBIDTA margin declined by 400bps YoY from 22.8% to 18.8% due to sharp increase in imported material cost with the depreciation of rupee. Pfizer has written off stocks and sales returns of Rs150mn of its insulin formulations. The company’s other income grew by 15%YoY from Rs206mn to Rs237mn. Net profit grew by 2%YoY. The company has hived off its animal healthcare (AHC) business into a 100% subsidiary for Rs4.4bn in line with the global divestment. Pfizer is a debt-free company and has cash per share of Rs290. We have retained Buy rating for the scrip with a target price of Rs1364 (based on 17x FY14E EPS of Rs80.2).

Strong revenue growth: During the quarter, the pharma business (80% of revenues) grew by 15%YoY, AHC (13% revenues) grew by 11% and services income (7% revenues) grew by 17%. The growth of pharma business was in line with the market growth of 15%. Pfizer has written off stocks and sales returns of ~Rs150mn of its insulin business.


Margin under pressure: Pfizer reported 400bps drop in EBIDTA margin from 22.8% to 18.8% due to sharp increase in material cost. Pfizer’s material cost increased by 670bps from 26.6% to 33.3% of revenues due to the increase in cost of imported raw materials, with the depreciation of rupee. The PBIT margin of pharma business dropped by 200bps YoY from 27.0% to 25.0%. PBIT margin of AHC declined by 980bps from 28.3% to 18.5%. However, the PBIT margin of services income grew by 190bps from 8.0% to 9.9%.


New products to drive growth: During the quarter, Pfizer introduced 7 branded generic products. With this the company has launched 21 branded generic products in the domestic market. These products are likely to be future growth drivers of the company.



Hives off AHC business: Pfizer has hived off its AHC business into a separate 100% subsidiary for a consideration of Rs4.4bn. Around 250 MRs will be transferred along with the business. The company will pay long-term capital gains tax of ~21% on this transaction. AHC is a low margin business and hence the overall margin is likely to improve.


Attractive valuations, Reiterate Buy: We expect Pfizer to benefit from the launch of branded generics and hiving-off of low margin AHC business. We have revised the EPS estimates downwards by 9% for FY13 and 13% for FY14. At the CMP of Rs1164, the stock trades at 16.4x FY13E EPS of Rs71.1 and 14.5x FY14E EPS of Rs80.2. We retain the Buy rating for the scrip with a target price of Rs1364 (based on 17x FY14 earnings of Rs80.2).





RISH TRADER

>SINTEX INDUSTRIES

For 4QFY2012, Sintex reported a 30.1% yoy decline in its net sales to `1,024cr. The company’s EBITDA declined by 45% yoy to `160cr and its EBITDA margin contracted by 415bp yoy to 15.6%. PAT came in at `91cr, down 46% yoy. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock.


Lower monolithic segment’s revenue impacts earnings: Sintex’s consolidated net sales declined by 30.1% yoy to `1,024cr during 4QFY2012, lower than our expectation. The decline in revenue was mainly led by the monolithic segment, which reported a dip of 54% yoy to `264cr; and flat performance by the storage tanks segment at `59cr. The domestic custom moulding segment reported 22% yoy growth to `266cr, while the overseas custom moulding reported a 71% yoy decline in revenue to `91cr. Sintex’s 4QFY2012 consolidated EBITDA stood at `160cr, down 45% yoy. OPM for the quarter stood at 15.6%, down 415bp yoy (up 158bp qoq) on the back of margin expansion in all segments. During the quarter, Sintex booked other income of `12cr (up 35% yoy). Consequently, PAT came in at `91cr, down 46% yoy, significantly below expectation.


Outlook and valuation: We have downgraded our earnings estimates for FY2013E and FY2014E on account of slowdown in the monolithic segment. Sintex will have low net debt/equity of 0.7x, by FY2014E. The stock is currently trading at 3.3x FY2014E EPS and 0.4x FY2014E P/BV only, which we feel is very attractive. Over the last five years, Sintex has traded at an average one-year P/E of 11.4x, which makes current valuations attractive. Moreover, further integration of foreign subsidiaries and acquisition in the monolithic segment will act as key catalysts for the stock. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `79.



Plastic segment pull downs EBITDA margin on a yoy basis
During the quarter, the plastic segment’s EBIT margin declined by 434bp yoy but\ improved by 102bp qoq on account of a better product mix. EBIT margin in the textile segment contracted by 525bp yoy but expanded by 203bp qoq owing to pick-up in demand for high-end fabrics and better pricing. In our view, quarterly margins are not a fair indicator of the company’s performance due to lumpiness of its business.


To read report in detail: SINTEX INDUSTRIES