>Daily Market & Technical Outllok (ICICI Direct)

Market outlook

􀂃 Indian markets are likely to open flat following flattish global cues. Our markets are following global markets at this point of time but will keenly watch local developments on the election front in the coming weeks. Any hints of an unstable government will put pressure on the markets for the next month. We feel traders should book profits on every rise and not to go short at this point of time

􀂃 The Sensex has supports at 10970 and 10810 and resistances at 11210 and 11370. The Nifty has supports at 3390 and 3350 and resistances at 3450 and 3510

􀂃 Asian stocks were trading mixed in morning trade

􀂃 The Dow gained 70.4 points, or 0.9%, to 7,957.0. The S&P rose 8.37 points, or 0.99%, to 851.92. The Nasdaq Composite added 6.09 points, or 0.37%, to 1,652.2

􀂃 Stocks in news: JK Tyre, DLF

To see full report: OPENING BELL

>Daily Calls (ICICI Direct)

Sensex: We said, "Negative until Index can move above 11036." Index, however, decided to protect 10719, and moved above 11036. The close was nearly 3% higher, above the 200-day EMA. IT and Metal Indexes outperformed with over 5% gain. Though Small-caps under-performed, up only 1%, A/D ratio turned positive.

The action formed a strong bull candle with higher high as well as higher low compared to previous day. It appears to be strong effort to defend the Index after it broke last week's low of 10719 marginally. It also looks like a pull-back to the channel. More positive efforts can be seen if it sustains above the high of 11203, else ...

To see full report: CALLS 240409

>Daily Derivatives (ICICI Direct)

Derivative Comments

• The Nifty near month witnessed short covering followed by a drop in OI by 2.10 million shares whereas the May series added 3.59 million shares in OI. With the May futures trading at a premium of 8.80 points we feel long positions have been formed in this series in yesterday’s session

• The PCR-OI has jumped on account of 47260 contracts addition in Puts against unwinding of 13618 contracts in Call options. All the Puts ranging from 3200 to 3500 added significant OI wherein the maximum addition was seen in the 3400 Put with 26365 contracts followed by 14557 contracts addition in the 3300 Put and nearly 9500 contracts addition in the 3200 and 3500 Puts. With an overall drop in IVs, Put writing was seen in almost all these strike price options. On the other hand, maximum unwinding amounting to 6137 contracts was observed in the 3600 Call option. We feel some Call writers have unwound their positions at this level. Since the Put IVs of 3200 and below strike prices is still high, participants can write Puts of 3200 and below strike prices. The level of 3300 could continue to act as a strong support for the Nifty on a closing basis in today’s session as well

• FII Index futures depicted a rise in OI by 4.50% along with a net buy of Rs 239 crore

To see full report: DERIVATIVES 240409

>Flash Economics (ECONOMIC RESEARCH)

Are there OECD countries that have an interest in high oil prices?

High oil prices reduce global activity because the propensity to save is higher in oil-exporting countries than in oil-importing countries. However, some OECD countries could, on the contrary, benefit from additional growth (income) when oil prices rise. The characteristics of such countries are as follows:

− they have very large and stable market shares in oil-producing countries, which implies that their exports to these countries increase significantly when oil prices rise (e.g. Germany and Sweden);

− they benefit significantly from the falling interest rates (rising asset prices) resulting from the investment of oil-producing countries' surpluses in the markets (this is true for all countries, especially those in the euro zone).

Germany could therefore be a country that benefits from higher oil prices, but not the United States and Japan which export very little to oil-producing countries, and not France and Spain which export little to these countries.

To see full report: FLASH ECONOMICS