>Macroeconomic Backdrop –Q1 FY13

The RBI is scheduled to conduct its First Quarter Monetary Policy Review on July 31, 2012 and the prevailing macroeconomic conditions are expected to dictate its policy stance with regard to interest rates. Accordingly, this update covers the performance of the Indian economy in FY13 so far in the domestic and external sector.

Domestic Macro-economy

Continuing with lacklustre performance of the last year, industrial production remained subdued in the first two months of FY13; weighed down by negative growth in mining (April and May) and manufacturing (April for entire sector and capital goods in both months) and moderation in productive activity in electricity sector.


The slowdown in industrial activity is due a combination of factors of low consumer, investment and government demand which has been driven partly by a policy of high interest rates to control inflation. While core inflation has moderated to around 5% (from a peak of 8.2% (November 2011) in the last fifteen months), overall inflation continues to remain high with food inflation moving back into double-digits.


To read report in detail: MACROECONOMIC BACKDROP

RISH TRADER

>Styrolution ABS (India)

For 2QCY2012, Styrolution ABS (India) Ltd. (formerly known as INEOS ABS India Ltd.) reported sequentially flat top line at `236cr, 8.2% higher than our estimate of `218cr. EBITDA came in at `14cr, far lower than our estimate of `18cr. Operating margins fell by 357bp sequentially to 6.1% owing to 385bp higher raw material cost. The company reported net profit of `10cr, 40% lower sequentially on the back of poor operating performance.


Persisting short supply coupled with capacity expansion to boost growth
Styrolution has recently expanded its capacity of ABS and SAN. This provides company an opportunity to reap benefits owing to domestic ABS demand supply gap (met by imports) which has persisted for long and continues to exist. In addition to capacity expansion company has come up with many tailor made products taking advantage of ABS’ flexibility of composition and structure, which allows its use in diverse applications.


Outlook and valuation
We expect Styrolution’s revenue to post a CAGR of 14.5% to `1,081cr over CY2011-13E on the back of consistent developments by the company. EBITDA is expected to grow at 18.7% CAGR to `115cr leading to margin expansion of 74bp to 10.6% in CY2013E. Net profit is expected to post CAGR of 23.1% to `82cr in CY2013E. At CMP of `670, stock is trading at PE of 14.4x and EV/Sales of 1.1x for CY2013E. We remain positive on the stock and recommend Accumulate with a target price of `744, based on target PE of 16x and implied EV/Sales of 1.2x for CY2013E earnings.

To read report in detail: STYROLUTION ABS


RISH TRADER

>ITC LIMITED: Ban on gutkha to aid cigarette volumes

FMCG losses declining; margins improve…


ITC’s Q1FY13 results were in line with our estimates with earnings witnessing growth of 20.2%. Cigarettes volume growth was flat on the back of ~15% price hike following the ~20% excise duty hike in the 2012 Budget. Based on our reverse calculations (through excise duty) we
believe there is a marginal de-growth in cigarette volumes. However, we expect cigarettes volumes to pick up in the rest of the year as the ban on Gutkha and Pan in six states would result in a shift in consumption from other tobacco products to cigarettes. FMCG revenues also witnessed 23% increase YoY led by 11-13% volume growth and ~10% price hike in selected products. We expect ITC to take further price hike in cigarettes in H2FY13E and break-even in FMCG business by FY14E; driving revenue and earnings growth, going forward. Maintain HOLD.


FMCG losses slide; cigarette volumes dip
In Q1FY13, FMCG losses declined ~50% YoY on the back of considerable price rise hikes and strong volume growth. However, cigarette volumes were flat due to ~15% increase in prices. We believe that cigarette margins improved led by a dip in raw tobacco prices. Agri business’s
earnings improved 16% YoY led by currency gains from export of raw tobacco. Hotel business earnings were down 50% due to an increase in operating expenditure after the commencement of Chennai property.


Ban on gutkha to aid cigarette volumes
Six state governments have already banned gutkha and pan masala. We believe other state governments would follow suit and implement the ban under the COTPA act. We believe this would shift consumption from other tobacco product to cigarettes hence driving ITC’s volume growth.


Continues to command 2x premium to Nifty
The stock is trading at a 120% premium to the Nifty compared to the historic average of 70% on PE multiples. With strong growth in the FMCG business and sustained margins in the cigarettes business, we believe ITC would continue to command this premium. We have valued the stock on an SOTP basis and maintained our target price of | 270 with HOLD rating.

>BATA INDIA

Sales Growth Below Estimate; Downgrade To Hold 


Revenue growth of Bata India (BIL) slowed to 17% in 2QCY12 compared to 30.6%/22.6% in 1QCY12/CY11, respectively, at Rs5,065mn, 4.1% lower than our estimate. It seems BIL was geared up for slower growth, which is visible from the fact that inventory days reduced to 96 in 2QCY12 from 102/108 in 2QCY11/CY11, respectively. Following buoyant performance in CY11/1QCY12, the stock price increased 42.9% over the past six months. Third quarter is generally a weak quarter for BIL due to the monsoon season. In such a scenario further re-rating seems difficult until BIL resumes its earlier growth trajectory. Following limited upside from current levels, we downgrade the stock to Hold from Buy. We maintain our estimates and the TP of Rs1,008 based on 16x CY13 EV/EBITDA. 


Slower pace of growth: BIL opened 108/145/61 stores in CY10/CY11/1QCY12, which drove its revenue up by 22.6%/30.6% in CY11/1QCY12, respectively. Compared to 68/145 new outlets in 1HCY11/CY11, BIL has opened over 100 outlets in 1HCY12. However, with high base and lower demand, tentatively due to the monsoon season as per the management, revenue growth moderated to 17% in 2QCY12. Inventory days increased to 108 in CY11 from 99 in CY10 on account of lower demand and aggressive expansion in 4QCY11. However, BIL appears to be prepared for lower growth which can be seen from the fact that inventory days reduced to 96 in 2QCY12 from 102/108 in 2QCY11/CY11, respectively. We expect the valuation to be capped until BIL resumes its high-growth trajectory. BIL incurred a capex of Rs34mn in 1HCY12, mainly to increase retail outlets. 


Better gross margin drove operating margin: BIL witnessed a drop in gross margin from 3QCY11 to 1QCY12, and even after that it was able to report better operating margin due to lower employee costs. However, with a better product mix, BIL was able to improve its gross margin by 99bps to 51.5% in 2QCY12, which led to a 86bps increase in operating margin. Following aggressive expansion, lease rent as a percentage of sales increased by 213/186bps to 10.6%/9.1% in 1QCY12/1HCY12, respectively. It would be difficult for BIL to improve operating margin from the current levels if the pace of revenue growth moderates in 2HCY12. 


Valuation: We expect the valuation of BIL, which trades at CY13E P/E of 23.5x and EV/EBITDA of 14.3x, to be capped until revenue growth resumes its earlier trajectory.
RISH TRADER

>BHEL

Performance Likely To Moderate 


Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) reported revenue of Rs83.3bn for 1QFY13, up 16.9% YoY and 9.5%/6.4% higher than our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively. However, we believe the pace of order execution may not sustain in the coming quarters with a declining order book, subdued order placement activity and possible delay from the clients’ side owing to structural issues in the power sector. Consequently, we maintain our revenue estimates for FY13E/FY14E. Driven by higher revenue, EBITDA/PAT were higher than our estimates by 7.9%/8.6%, respectively, but margins were largely in line with our estimates. EBITDA grew 17.8% YoY to Rs10.9bn, translating to an operating margin of 13.1%, 20bps lower than our estimate of 13.3%. PAT registered 12.9% YoY growth at Rs9.2bn, resulting in a net profit margin of 11.1%, in line with our estimate. Consequently, we maintain our view of sharp erosion in profitability for BHEL over FY12-14E. We retain our Hold rating on the stock with a target price of Rs221 based on 9xFY14E EPS. 


Order intake to remain weak: Procedural delays on account of land acquisition, fuel linkage and environment/forest clearance continued to hamper order placement activity in the power sector. For the quarter, BHEL reported order inflow of only Rs56bn (weak order intake in four out of the past five quarters) leading to order backlog of Rs1,329bn, 13.3% lower YoY. BHEL is yet to be awarded orders worth Rs93.8bn by NTPC through its bulk tenders. Although the management reiterated its order inflow guidance of Rs600bn for FY13E, we are factoring in order inflow assumption of Rs450bn as we expect the policy paralysis in the power sector to continue. 


Margin compression likely: We expect a sharp erosion in profitability for BHEL over FY12-14E due to pricing pressure in the BTG (boiler, turbine and generator) space owing to dual impact of oversupply and weak demand. The industry segment is also beginning to witness softening margins as it registered a 160bps YoY decline in operating margin to 21% for the quarter. Consequently, we expect BHEL’s operating margin to fall 160bps/150bps YoY in FY13E/FY14E to 17.7%/16.2%, respectively. 


Outlook and Valuation: BHEL is unlikely to sustain its revenue growth traction on such a high base, considering the subdued order placement activity. Also, compression in operating margin is likely to lead to earnings CAGR decline of 7.9% over FY12-14E. However, we believe the recent correction in its stock price factors in these negatives. At Rs212, BHEL trades at 8.0x/8.6x FY13E/FY14E earnings, respectively, compared to average PE of 16x over the past 10 years and least PE of 7.9x/6.5x over the past 6/10 years, respectively. We value the stock at 9xFY14E EPS of Rs24.6 with a target price of Rs221 and retain our Hold rating on it.



RISH TRADER

>Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation

Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs179
Current market price: Rs129

Price target revised to Rs179

Result highlights

• Margin pressure severe than expected: For Q1FY2013 Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals Corporation Ltd (DFPCL) reported a revenue growth of 33.8% to Rs634 crore, which was marginally lower than expected mainly on account of a lower than expected growth in the fertiliser segment. However, the major disappointment was on the margin front?the margin declined sharply by 770 basis points to 16.1% on account of higher prices of the inputs especially ammonia (a major raw material) and propane. 
• Surge in interest burden pulls down earnings: The interest cost went up by 109.6% year on year (YoY) to Rs26.6 crore due an increase in the working capital requirement with the delayed receipt of the subsidy from the government and the full capitalisation of the new TAN plant (with effect from Q2FY2012). The reported profit after tax (PAT) for Q1FY2013 shows a decline of 28.8% at Rs45.5 crore, which is lower than our estimate of Rs49.7 crore. 
• Demand in chemical segment remains buoyant: Despite the prevailing slowdown in the economy, the company reported a fairly healthy volume growth of 14.7% in its chemical segment (products such as IPA, CAN etc). A better utilisation of the TAN plant also boosted the volume growth by 19.5% in Q1FY2013. However, the volume growth in the fertiliser segment declined marginally as the lower availability of phosphoric acid resulted in a lower production.
• Outlook and valuation: Though the volume growth continues to be robust for the key products in the chemical segment, but we have revised downwards our earnings estimates for FY2013 and FY2014 by 8% and 6% respectively to factor in the higher than expected pressure on the margins. However, the valuations are supportive and we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs179. At the current market price of Rs129, the stock trades at very attractive valuations of 4.9 and 4.3x its FY2013E and FY2014E earnings respectively.

RISH TRADER

>CESC

Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs405
Current market price: Rs282

Results dented by high purchase cost; retail business improves

Result highlights

• Sales reported in line with estimate: CESC's sales in Q1FY2013 grew by 20% year on year (YoY) but declined by 4% quarter on quarter (QoQ) to Rs1,404 crore. The company reported sales in line with our estimate along with power generation units at 2430 million units (MU). The company purchased 632 MU (32% above our estimate) of power during the quarter while transmission and distribution (T&D) losses stood at 595 MU (14% higher than our estimate).
  The YoY sales growth would be attributed to both - higher power sent out (+11%) and tariff hike (+9%). Sequentially the revenue reported a growth of 4% despite the power sold volume improving by 36% (reflecting summer season demand) as CESC got approval for a 14% tariff revision in Q4FY2012 which brings in a one-off adjustment in Q4FY2012. Therefore sequentially the numbers are not comparable. 
• ..but higher power purchase cost pushed operating profit lower than estimates: Though the sales have been reported in line with our estimate, a higher than estimated power purchase cost pushed the operating profit below our estimate by 6% to Rs290 crore. The power purchase cost jumped briskly with a growth rate of 80% YoY and 193% QoQ, driven by a surprisingly high volume (up 50% YoY and 200% QoQ). During Q1FY2013, the cost of purchased power stood at Rs5.4/unit, up 20% YoY and down 3% QoQ.
  The Operating profit grew 9% YoY against a 20% sales growth, primarily on account of a surge in the power purchase cost (up 80%). Even sequentially, the higher power purchase cost impacted numbers; however due to tariff revision adjustment built in Q4FY2012 numbers, the sequential number is not comparable. However, sequentially, the operating profit declined 33%. 
• Net profit grew by 13% YoY, though lower than estimate: Below the operating profit, a higher than estimated interest and depreciation cost pushed the profit after tax (PAT) 14% below our estimate to Rs125 crore in Q1FY2013. This reflects a growth of 13% YoY. The numbers are not comparable sequentially due to one-time tariff revision adjustment done in Q4FY2012. This translates into earnings per share (EPS) of Rs9.9 for Q1FY2013. 
• Spencers store level profitability improved coupled with a 15% same store sales growth: The rationalisation and restructuring efforts in the retail business seem to be bearing results as store level profitability has improved significantly to 3.7% (against 2.4% in Q1FY2012 and 3.2% in Q4FY2012) with sustained same store sale growth of a healthy 15% YoY in this quarter. The management aims to take store level profitability to 4% in FY2013; the same would be a key monitorable.
  Despite the closure of 43 stores over last year (163 operational now), Spencer?s total trading area has improved from 9,54,000 sq ft to 9,75,000 sq ft in Q1FY2013. This indicates the focused attempt of the company to operate on a larger format to spread overheads. 
• View: retain Buy rating and target price at Rs405: Currently, the stock is trading at 0.6x its FY2013 and 0.5x its FY2014 book value (BV; standalone). We continue to remain positive on CESC as its standalone business (power) is doing fairly well and as a growth trigger, development of new projects is on track. We believe the loss making retail business is the key reason for the discounted valuations assigned to the stock. But we read the recent improvement in the retail business as a silver lining. Tactical efforts by the management to improve its loss making retail business and attempts towards bringing it into the black (store level profitability improved to 3.7% vs 2.4% over the same quarter last year) are visible. Therefore, we maintain our Buy on CESC and retain our target price of Rs405. 

RISH TRADER

>BAJAJ HOLDINGS & INVESTMENT

Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,131
Current market price: Rs735

Price target revised to Rs1,131

Result highlights

• The consolidated income of Bajaj Holdings and Investment Ltd (BHIL) declined by 7.8% year on year (YoY) to Rs72.4 crore in Q1FY2013 against Rs78.5 crore reported in the corresponding period of the previous year. During the last six quarters the company has reported a lacklustre top line of under Rs100 crore. The subdued equity market has presented limited profit-booking opportunities for the company in recent times.
• However, the income from the company?s associates improved by 8.7% YoY in the same quarter. This led to a 6% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in the profit after tax (PAT) to Rs349 crore.
• During Q1FY2013, the total market value of the company?s investments declined by 2.1% sequentially whereas the cost of investments rose by 0.9% due to an increased exposure to the equity market.
• The market value of its equity investments in the core associate companies (accounting for 78% contribution) declined by 2.9% sequentially while the value in the other equity investments increased by 6% quarter on quarter (QoQ).

ValuationBajaj Auto is the key investment of BHIL and has been valued at 12.5x FY2014 earnings per share (EPS). Though the company reported quarterly results in line with expectations but there are concerns over a sharp moderation in the domestic volume growth. Our price target for Bajaj FinServ is based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method.

Given the strategic nature of BHIL's investments, we have given a holding company discount of 50% to BHIL?s equity investments. The liquid investments have been valued at cost. Our price target of Rs1,131 implies a 51% upside for the stock. We maintain our Buy recommendation on BHIL. 


RISH TRADER

>THERMAX: Q1FY2013 results

Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs482
Current market price: Rs481

Price target revised to Rs482

Result highlights

• Results below expectations: Thermax Q1FY2013 results were below our expectations due to revenue sluggishness as well as a marked-to-market (MTM) foreign exchange (forex) loss of Rs12.4 crore for the quarter (as compared with a Rs0.15-crore forex gain in the previous year). The order inflow for the quarter picked up on a sequential basis (up 56%) to Rs1,258 crore (though the same was down 13% on a yearly basis). The company has also reported a loss of Rs15 crore in its various subsidiaries and joint ventures. 
• Top line fell by 6%: Thermax? Q1FY2013 net income from the operations showed a fall of 6% year on year (YoY) to Rs983 crore, which is in line with our expectation. This was on account of a decline in the revenues seen across segments, with the energy and environment segments declining by 5% and 8% respectively on a yearly basis. The company had been reporting sluggishness in the order inflow for the past few quarters which translated into a revenue slowdown in this quarter. However, the company booked higher export revenues in this quarter at Rs222 crore (up 10% YoY).
• Margin pressure led by forex loss: A 40% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rise in the other expenses (led by the forex loss) resulted in a lower margin of 9.8% vs 10.9% reported in Q1FY2013. Overall, the operating profit fell by 15%. This was the lowest quarterly margin reported in the last 20 quarters. 
• Net profit fell by 16%: In spite of a higher other income, the higher than expected interest and depreciation costs dragged down the net profit, which fell by 16% YoY to Rs71 crore and was lower than our expectation of Rs74 crore. 
• Group order inflow improves QoQ: The company?s current order backlog at the group level stands muted at Rs5,042 crore (down 26% YoY) owing to a lack of any large-ticket order. The order inflow during the quarter picked up on a sequential basis at Rs1,412 crore (up 54% QoQ), led by a pick-up in international orders. For Q1, the company recorded export order intake of Rs324 crore, contributing 26% to the total order intake driven by an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) order for 38MW captive power plant worth around Rs150 crore ($26.5 million). 
• Stand-alone order book position: To the stand-alone order inflow of Rs1,258 crore, the energy segment contributed Rs949 crore and the environment segment Rs309 crore, showing a decline of 15% and 6% respectively. The major sectors likely to contribute to the order inflow in the coming quarters are cement, chemicals, water treatment and fertilisers while the demand from the steel and power sectors is expected to lag in the near term. Thermax foresees an unclear demand environment in the domestic market in the near term. Therefore, the management is looking to expand the overseas operations in the emerging markets like China, South-East Asia and Africa. 
• Estimates maintained: In view of a poor order inflow in FY2012, we had sharply downgraded our estimates for FY2013 and FY2014. The sequential pick-up in the order inflow makes us maintain our estimates now. Overall, we are expecting the company to post a muted compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.4% in the profit over FY2012-14. We also feel that the company could aggressively bid for projects in the coming times to keep its order book ringing in spite of rising competition. This would adversely affect its margins leading to margin pressure in the coming quarters. 
• Price target revised to Rs482: The growth in the company?s order book remains highly dependent on the momentum in the capital expenditure (capex) cycle of India, making the company highly susceptible to the swings in investment sentiments. The investment in its power equipment venture has started to post losses (for revenue expenses and working capital) as the venture has failed to win any orders. This venture involving Rs850 crore of capex would remain a drag on the company?s resources unless the company wins some major orders in the near term. The company had earlier indicated that the annual running cost of this plant could run as high as Rs100 crore. Marred by poor order inflow and tough business environment, the stock has languished in the last one and a half years. At the current market price, the stock trades at 14.6x and 14.0x its FY2013 and FY2014 estimated earnings respectively. On an improvement in the order inflow in this quarter, we are revising our target multiple to 14x (the past 12 months? average) from 13x earlier. Accordingly, we have revised our price target to Rs482. In view of the limited upside potential, we maintain our Hold rating on the stock. The key positive triggers in the stock remain the winning of big-ticket power equipment and export orders. Also, a pick-up in the capex activities would augur well for the company. 
  
  

RISH TRADER

>BANK OF INDIA

Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs310
Current market price: Rs291

Price target revised to Rs310

Result highlights

• Bank of India (BoI)?s Q1FY2013 results were ahead of our estimates as the earnings of the bank grew by 71.5% year on year (YoY; -6.9% quarter on quarter [QoQ]) to Rs888 crore led by a decline in the provision expenses and a higher recovery from written off accounts.
• The net interest income (NII) growth came in below expectations as it grew by 11% YoY (-18.3% QoQ) to Rs2,044 crore led by a sharp decline in the net interest margin (NIM; 2.27% vs 2.86% in Q4FY2012). There was an interest reversal (Rs170 crore) and a reduction in the base rate which contributed to a dip in NIMs.
• The advances grew 22.9% YoY and 6.2% QoQ led by a sharp growth in the overseas business and retail advances. The deposits grew by 15.7% YoY whereas the current account and savings account (CASA) ratio declined to 31.2% from 32.8% in Q4FY2012.
• The non-interest income grew by 27.4% YoY (down 13.1% QoQ) aided by a sharp jump in the recovery from the written-off accounts (Rs236 crore vs Rs31 crore in Q1FY2012).
• The asset quality deteriorated as slippages increased to Rs1,747 crore (2.8% annualised). The bank restructured Rs4,074 crore of advances during the quarter taking the total restructured book to Rs20,590 crore (7.8% of the total advances). 
• Provision expenses declined by 16.7% YoY (32.7% QoQ) mainly due to reversal of investment provision of Rs136 crore. The provision coverage ratio (PCR) of the bank also declined marginally to 60.9% from 61.2% in Q4FY2012.

Valuation and outlookBoI has reported qualitatively weak results for Q1FY2012 as its NIM tanked and restructured loans increased sharply during the quarter. We therefore reduce our earnings estimates on an average by 3-5% for FY2013, and FY2014. We expect earnings to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% which leads to a return on asset (RoA) of around 0.8%. We therefore revise the target price to Rs310 and maintain our Hold recommendation. 

RISH TRADER

>GRASIM INDUSTRIES: Expansion projects on VSF, chemicals and cement are on track

Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs2,795
Current market price: Rs2,700

Price target revised to Rs2,795

Result highlights

• Consolidated earnings ahead of estimates: Grasim Industries (Grasim) in its Q1FY2013 results posted a net profit of Rs718 crore (declined by 4.5% year on year [YoY]) on a consolidated basis which is ahead of our as well as the street?s estimates. This is largely on account of a lesser than expected fall in its VSF realisation and better than expected overall performance of its key subsidiary- Ultratech which reflects the performance of the cement business. 
• Revenue growth driven by strong performance of cement and chemical division: The consolidated net sales of the company grew by 15.9% YoY to Rs6,793.4 crore which were supported by a strong revenue growth in the cement division (increased by 16.9%) and the chemicals division (increased by 52.8%). The revenue from its VSF division registered a revenue growth of 9.2% YoY as the average realisation has declined by 16%. The revenue growth in the cement division was largely supported by an around 13.7% growth in the average blended realisation whereas the volume grew by just 2.8%. In case of the chemical division the revenue growth was supported by a mix of realisation as well as volume. 
• Margin contracted Y-o-Y; improved Q-o-Q: In spite of an improvement in the cement realisation and expansion in the profitability of the chemical division, the severe margin pressure in the VSF division offset the positive impact arising from the improvement in the profitability of the chemical division and increase in the cement realisation. Hence the overall operating profit margin (OPM) of the company has contracted by 344 basis points YoY to 23.5%. The profit before interest and tax (PBIT) margin of the VSF business has contracted by over 12 percentage points (due to a drop in the realisation). In case of the cement division, the margin contracted by 155 basis points (on account of an increase in the cost of production). The PBIT margin in the chemical division has improved sharply by 739 basis points YoY. Thus, the operating profit of the company grew by just 1.1% YoY to Rs1,593.2 crore (as compared to a 15.9% growth on the revenue front). However, on a sequential basis the OPM of the company has expanded by 227 basis points. 
• Expansion on track, balance sheet is strong to fund the capex: The expansion projects on VSF, chemicals and cement are progressing well and are expected to come on stream as per schedule. The cement division is likely to add another 10.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of capacity by Q1FY2014, the VSF capacity is likely to increase by 156,000 tonne by FY2013 and the chemical division is likely to add 182,000 tonne of capacity. Further the company plans to set up a greenfield VSF project in Turkey in joint venture (JV) with other group companies. The funding of the new capacity addition will be met through a mix of internal accruals and borrowings. The present debt-equity (D-E) ratio stands at 0.32 which reflects a strong balance sheet and comfortable scope for raising debt to fund the capital expenditure (capex).
• CCI has imposed a penalty of Rs1,175 crore on Ultratech; company will appeal against the CCI order: The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has imposed a penalty on around 11 cement companies for operating a cartel and manipulating cement prices at higher level. As per the CCI order Ultratech will have to pay Rs1,175 crore as penalty. However, based on a legal opinion, the company will appeal against the order before the tribunal. Accordingly Ultratech has not made any provision on account of the CCI penalty. 
• Maintain Buy with a revised price target of Rs2,795: We continue to prefer Grasim as our top pick among the large sized players due to its strong balance sheet, comfortable D:E ratio (0.32x Q1FY2013), attractive valuation and its diversified business. We estimate the consolidated earnings of the company to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% over FY2012-2014. Hence we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. On the valuation front we continue to value Grasim using the sum of the parts (SOTP) valuation methodology and arrive at a revised price target of Rs2,795. At the current market price the stock trades at a price/earnings (PE) ratio of 8.6x, discounting its FY2014 estimated earnings per share (EPS). 

RISH TRADER

>IRB Infrastructure Developers

 Recommendation: Buy

Price target: Rs175
Current market price: Rs113

Strong execution drives growth

Result highlights

• Earnings above estimates, margins expand: For Q1FY2013 IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB)?s consolidated revenues grew by 22% year on year (YoY) and 15.5% quarter on quarter (QoQ) to Rs980 crore (marginally above estimates) led by a strong execution in the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) segment and consistent toll collection across projects. Further the operating profit margin (OPM) improved sharply to 43.4% (better than estimates) as against 41.1% in Q1FY2012, but lower than Q4FY2012 margin of 44.9%. The improvement is mainly on account of margin expansion in the EPC segment. Subsequently the EBITDA is up 29% YoY. However, the profit after tax (PAT) growth was restricted to only 5.7% YoY to Rs142 crore (though much above our as well as the street?s estimates) due to ~80% surge in depreciation mainly on account of the Surat ? Dahisar project getting fully operational and increase in interest charges by 31%. The tax rate too came in higher than estimated at 29%, thus eroding profits.
• Strong performance by the EPC segment: The EPC vertical posted a strong growth of 27% YoY and 21% quarter on quarter (QoQ) in revenues to Rs728 crore led by a robust execution in the Talegaon ? Amravati, Jaipur ? Deoli, Amritsar ? Pathankot and Tumkur ? Chitradurga projects. Further the quarter also witnessed stable / range bound movement in input (raw material) prices as a result of which the margins expanded to 27.9% vis a vis 22.8% in Q1FY2012 and 26.9% in Q4FY2012. Subsequently the EBITDA was up 55% YoY and 26% QoQ. However due to a surge in interest cost, the PAT was up 37% YoY and 20% QoQ.
• Even BOT division continues its stable performance: Even the build operate transfer (BOT) division continued to put up a stable performance with revenues up 10.4% YoY and 2% QoQ to Rs252 crore. The growth was largely led by (i) toll revision by 6% since April 2012 at the Tumkur ? Chitradurg project and (ii) strong traffic growth witnessed across few projects on a Y-o-Y basis especially in the Surat ? Dahisar, Surat-Bharuch and Mumbai ? Pune projects. At the operating level as well, the segment witnessed a 110 basis point YoY margin expansion to 88.2% resulting in an 11.8% YoY growth in the EBITDA. However due to a sharp jump in depreciation on account of the Surat-Dahisar project, the PAT fell by 35% YoY but was up 13% QoQ (since the depreciation impact was there Q4FY2012 onwards).
• Thus earnings estimates revised upwards: We have revised our earnings estimates upwards by 15% and 7% for FY2013 and FY2014 respectively to factor in an expansion in the EPC margins as witnessed in Q1FY2013.
• Maintain Buy with price target of Rs175: We continue to like IRB given its vast portfolio, rich experience, strong financials and healthy cash flows from its operational toll-based projects, all of which provide comfort. With a strong pipeline of projects up for award from the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) and the bidding process becoming less aggressive, the management is confident of securing projects at an equity IRR of 18%. Further, it is also looking at growing inorganically by acquiring operational projects. With a mature portfolio now, the management plans to reward shareholders with dividend upto 20% of net profit. Its dividend payout last year was 14%. Thus with this strategy, it has declared a 10% interim dividend of Rs1 per share (face value Rs10). We like the strategy of the management for future growth and hence maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs175. Further the stock has corrected sharply post its promoter getting tangled in a murder case and the recent Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) attack on its Mumbai-Pune Expressway. Notwithstanding the legal tangle of its promoter we believe the sharp correction offers a compelling buying opportunity. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 7.6x and 8.4x its FY2013E and FY2014E earnings respectively. 

RISH TRADER

>PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK

Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs920
Current market price: Rs715

Price target revised to Rs920

Result highlights

• Punjab National Bank (PNB)?s Q1FY2013 net earnings grew 12.7% year on year (YoY; Rs1,246 crore) against our estimate of Rs1,302 crore. While the growth in net interest income (NII) was better than expectation, the sharp rise in provisions contained the growth in profits.
• Led by a 10 basis point quarter on quarter (QoQ) increase in net interest margin (NIM; 3.6% vs 3.5% in Q4FY2013) the NII increased by 18.6% YoY. The QoQ expansion in investment yields and advances yields boosted the NIM.
• The business growth was steady as advances grew 21.2% YoY while deposits grew 18.9% YoY. However, the current account savings account (CASA) ratio declined to 34.6% from 35.3% in Q4FY2012. 
• The non-interest income grew 7.6% YoY, though the core fee income grew by 18.6% YoY. The treasury profit was Rs88 crore vs Rs48 crore in Q4FY2012. The employee expenses increased 41% QoQ due to increased provision for employee benefits (switched to quarterly actuarial valuation from annually done earlier).
• A sharp rise in slippages (Rs2,770 crore) overshadowed the pick-up in recoveries, hence leading to an increase in non-performing assets (NPAs; gross NPAs at 3.34% and net NPAs at 1.68%). The bank also restructured Rs1,239 crore of advances, thereby increasing the restructured book to 8.7% of the advances. 

Valuation
PNB?s Q1FY2013 results reflect the mounting pressure on asset quality as the economy slows down. We therefore raise the provision estimates and revise the earnings estimates downwards by 5% for FY2013 and 3.5% for FY2014. Hence our target price gets revised to Rs920 (1x FY2014 adjusted book value [BV]). The bank is likely to maintain its return on equity (RoE) of 17% and return on asset (RoA) of 1% and is trading at 0.7x FY2014 adjusted BV. We retain our Buy rating on the stock.

RISH TRADER

>CEMENT SECTOR: Regional Impact of delayed monsoons on cement prices

■ All India prices at Rs308/bag +2.3% mom. Supply shortage led by plant shutdowns & delayed monsoons helping demand; prices in north hiked +6% mom, central + 4% & western 3% mom. Price likely to soften with pick up of monsoon in August ¾ Subdued demand exerting downward pressure in eastern region-prices decline 3.6% mom. Electricity cuts drive AP upwards Rs20/bag hikes. Other southern regions remain flat 


■ Prices trend has surprised in June –July period despite some unusual decline seen during April-May period. Price recovery positive for producers


■ Cost pressure peaking out with international coal prices decline. Prefer ACC & Shree Cement. Retain HOLD on Ultratech (prefer Grasim). Maintain REDUCE on Ambuja & India Cement


Our recent channel checks suggest that plant shutdowns in Chattisgarh (4 cement plants-2 plants of UltraTech and 1 each of Ambuja Cement and Lafarge shut on alleged violation of air pollution control norms by Chattisgarh Environment Conservation Board) along with routine maintenance shutdowns (for some kilns) taken by cement producers in this period has resulted in a shortage of supply of cement. This together with delayed monsoon (which usually affect construction activities) is helping demand remain above expected seasonal levels, and has led to a temporary un-seasonal demand-supply mismatch; thereby fuelling cement prices hikes in Northern, central and western region. On the other hand owing to normal rainfall received in the eastern part of the country prices remain under pressure with a 3% mom decline. Price trend in Southern region remains flattish with the exception of Andhra Pradesh where electricity cuts drive prices up by Rs20-25/bag.


■ Industry Growth estimated at ~9-9.5%
The top 5 producers have posted a growth of 10.2% in the month of June. The industry growth normally trends at 80-90% of the top 5 producer’s dispatch growth trend (exception in the month of April-12) thereby pointing towards estimates of 9-9.5% yoy dispatch growth for industry in the month of June-12.



■ Regional Impact of delayed monsoons on cement prices
Northern Region: Rainfall in the northern region remains deficient with departure from long period average (LPA) of almost ~50-70%. The effect of this can be seen in pockets like Chandigarh and Punjab where prices have been hiked by 10.2% and 8.8% mom.


To read report in detail: CEMENT SECTOR
RISH TRADER

>PETRONET LNG (SWOT ANALYSIS)

Capacity expansion to drive volume growth
Foreseeing huge opportunity with increasing demand-supply mismatch, PLL has chalked out aggressive capex plans to increase its capacity from current 10 MMTPA to ~17.5 MMTPA over the next 3 years with the total capital outlay of ~Rs.54 bn. This would be majorly led by Greenfield expansion at Kochi (5.0 MMTPA – Dec’12) & capacity expansion at Dahej (2.5 MMTPA – FY15) by way of additional jetty. Apart from above, the Company also plans to set-up additional capacity of ~10 MMTPA i.e. 5.0 MMTPA each at Gangavaram & Dahej, taking its total capacity to ~27.5 MMTPA by 2017-18. However considering the long-gestation period, we have not factored in the 10 MTPA expansion in our earnings estimates.


Petronet LNG – ‘Ideally positioned to capture huge opportunity in LNG space’
With increasing gas demand coupled with reducing domestic gas supplies, LNG seems to be the optimal solution to bridge the gap. PLL being the largest established player in the space is well positioned to capture this huge opportunity. Also, Gail being one of its promoters enables the Company to have access to its vast distribution network which not only provides easy access to its clients but also helps in exploring newer markets. Besides, the Company also enjoys the lower capital cost for its Dahej facility compared to current cost of setting up new facilities resulting into lower re-gasification charges which would act as a strong entry barrier for its competitors.


Healthy Balance-sheet coupled with strong operating cash flows provides comfort
Despite huge ongoing capex, the Company has been able to maintain its D/E in comfortable zone (~1x) largely due to its strong operating cash flows, which provides enough room for further leverage. On an average, the Company has been able to generate cash-flows to the tune of ~Rs.7-8 bn every year, which is further likely to improve going ahead. Also the Company has strong return ratios with ROE & ROCE pegged at 34% & 27% respectively. Healthy balance-sheet, strong operating cash-flows coupled with robust return ratios would not only provide better financial stability but would also support huge expansion plan in near future.


OUTLOOK & VALUATION PLL being the largest established player is well placed to capture the huge opportunity in the LNG space which has emerged due to strong domestic gas demand. Aggressive capex plan (10 to 17.5 MMTPA) to meet the increasing gas demand is likely to result in strong volume growth over the next few years. Also strong parental support coupled with capital cost advantage at Dahej provides competitive edge over its peers. Healthy balance-sheet along with strong operating cash-flows not only provides better financial stability but would also support huge expansion plan in future. At the CMP of Rs.147, the stock is quoting at 10.4x and 2.2x its FY14E EPS & BV of Rs.14.1 and Rs.67.6 respectively. Hence, considering the sound business model, huge capacity expansion coupled with strong financials, we maintain our positive outlook on the stock & recommend ‘HOLD’ with a DCF based price target of Rs.167.


To read report in detail: PETRONET LNG
RISH TRADER

>TATA STEEL: Overseas business had an erosive impact on net worth

Despite free cash flows of INR22b, net debt increased 5% to INR524b Operating cash flows were up significantly due to working capital release in FY12 against large increase in FY11. Also, half of the INR120b capex was funded by asset sales. Despite free cash flows of INR22b, net debt increased 5% to INR524b.


Net worth driven by asset sales and translation gains, not by business profit
The net worth of the Tata Steel group increased by INR77b to INR433b largely due to equity infusion, asset sales, goodwill and asset translation gains. Core profit from India business after paying dividend contributed INR47b, but this was offset by INR42b of after tax loss in overseas operations. Actuarial loss of INR24b in overseas business had an erosive impact on net worth.


Adjusted EPS 11% lower than reported EPS
EPS adjusted for the distribution expense of INR2.25b towards hybrid perpetual securities (HPS) was INR18.6, 11% lower than reported EPS. From the common shareholder’s perspective, HPS is debt and the interest in the form of distribution expense should be adjusted against EPS.


Other highlights
 The management highlighted that Tata Steel Europe (TSE) is under enormous stress due to prolonged recession in Europe. Stricter environmental norms ahead will increase costs. The covenants on acquisition debt are also concerning.


 Full commissioning of the Jamshedpur Brownfield expansion is delayed by further three months. Poor 1QFY13 volumes and project delays have put the guidance of 1m tonnes of incremental volumes in FY13 at risk, in our view.


 Coking coal shipments have started from Mozambique in June 2012. Iron ore shipments from Canada are likely to start in 4QFY13. Outlook not very encouraging


 Significant cost increases on account of power, freight, iron ore, etc for India operations are sticky in nature. For TSI (Tata Steel India), the increase in revenue in FY12, driven by volumes and prices, was offset by increase in costs.


 TSE not only faces the challenge to deal with the steel price and raw material cost squeeze, but also rising specific fixed costs due to production loss.


To read report in detail: TATA STEEL

>Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation

Beats estimate, cost pressure continues…


􀂄 Better‐than‐expected quarter: Deepak Fertilizer and Petrochemicals’ (DFPC’s) net sales grew by 33.8% YoY to Rs6,341m (PLe: Rs4,839m). Higher fertiliser trading sales resulted in better-than-anticipated Q1FY13 sales. Chemicals and Fertiliser volumes grew by 9.6% and 2.2% YoY, respectively. Complex fertiliser volumes de-grew by 6.5% YoY on account of liquidation of inventory as industry had pushed the same during Q4FY12. DFPC’s EBITDA de-grew by 9.5% to Rs1,022m (PLe: Rs966m). EBITDA margins have fallen by 770bps YoY (up 320bps QoQ) to 16.1% mainly due to higher input cost (ammonia and propylene) in the chemical segment. Further, higher contribution of fertiliser trading business (low
margin business) has resulted in lower EBIT margin in the fertiliser business. We believe that the rupee depreciation has also impacted the same. Chemical segment’s EBIT margin has came down by 800bps YoY to 20.4% (up 410bps QoQ). Finance cost is up by 109.6% YoY to Rs266m (up 9.0% QoQ) due to an increase in working capital with the delayed receipt of government subsidy and full capitalization of new TAN plant. Adjusted PAT de-grew by 28.8% YoY to Rs455m (PLe: Rs389m).


􀂄 Key Highlights: Management believes that global ammonia prices would ease from H2FY13 which would consequently ease the stress on company margins, going forward. Company is steadily ramping up the capacity utilization at the new TAN plant and is expected to produce 2L MT (~70% utilization level).


􀂄 Maintain ‘Accumulate’: During FY04-12, stock traded in the P/E band between 4x-7x. We maintain our “Accumulate” rating on the stock, with the target price of Rs148 (i.e.6xFY13E). Stock has dividend yield of 4.2% at CMP. We believe that cost pressures will continue in the next couple of quarters and further, issue of KG basin gas allocation to P&K producers would be a near-term risk to the stock.

RISH TRADER

>MERCK

On recovery path


Merck’s results for Q2CY12 were better than our expectations. The company reported 16%YoY growth in revenues, 40bps improvement in EBIDTA margin and 14%YoY growth in net profit. The growth was driven by the chemical business (32% of revenues), which grew by 23%YoY. However, the pharma business (68% of revenues) grew by 13%YoY. Merck is a debt-free company with cash/share of Rs85. We expect the growth momentum to be maintained due to strong growth in the chemical business. We have a Buy rating for the scrip with a target price of Rs687 (based on 14x CY13E EPS of Rs49.1).
 
■ Strong growth in chemical business: Merck reported 16% YoY growth in revenues from Rs1.60bn to Rs1.85bn due to strong growth in the chemical business. The company’s pharma business (68% of revenues) grew by 13%YoY from Rs1.14bn to Rs1.28bn. The growth was lower than the market growth of ~15%. The company’s chemical business (32% of revenues) grew by 23%YoY from Rs496mn to Rs610mn.


■ Margin improvement: Merck’s EBIDTA margin improved by 40bps YoY from 14.6% to 15.0% despite sharp rise in the material cost. On a QoQ basis, the margin improvement was 380bps. The company’s material cost increased from 42.0% to 44.7% of revenues due to the rise in imported raw material cost with the depreciating rupee. Merck’s personnel cost declined by 60bps from 13.1% to 12.5% due to higher sales growth. Other expenses declined by 240bps from 30.3% to 27.9% of revenues.



■ Strong growth in chemical business: Merck reported strong growth of 23% in the chemical segment. The company manufactures vitamin E, Oxynex ST, thiamine disulphide (TDS) and guaiazulene at its Goa facility and exports some of these products to its parent company.
 
■ Major brands growing slowly: As per IMS MAT-May’12 data, Merck’s major brand Neurobion Forte grew by 6.6%, Evion 10.1% and Polybion SF (4.3)%. However, its OTC brand Nasivion grew by 23.3%.   

■ Valuations: We expect EPS of Rs41.1 for CY12 and Rs49.1 for CY13. At the CMP of Rs606, the stock trades at 14.7x CY12 and 12.3x CY13 earnings. We have a Buy rating for the scrip with a target price of Rs687 (based on 14x CY14E EPS of Rs49.1) with 13.4% upside over the CMP.


RISH TRADER

>ICICI BANK LTD: Q1FY13 Results

• ICICI Bank reported PAT of Rs.1815 crore in Q1FY13 v/s market expectation of Rs.1730 crore.
• Net Interest Income was Rs.3193 crore in Q1FY13 v/s market expectation of Rs.3061 crore.
• NIMs have improved YoY from 2.6% n Q1 FY12 to 3.01% in Q1 FY13.
• Advances have grown by 22% YoY to Rs.2,68,429.9 crore in Q1FY13
• Deposits grew by 16% YoY to Rs.2,67,794.2 crore in Q1FY13.
• Asset quality has improved YoY but has stayed flat sequentially. GNPA stood at 3.5% in Q1FY13 v/s 4.4% in
Q1FY12 and 3.6% in Q4FY12. Net NPA was 0.7% in Q1 FY13 v/s 1% in Q1 FY12.

RISH TRADER

>JSW ENERGY

 1QFY13 adjusted PAT higher than estimates: During 1QFY13 adjusted PAT stood at INR1.9b v/s our estimate of INR1.6, consolidated PAT boosted by higher generation. JSWEL reported forex loss of INR2.3b pertaining MTM on Buyer's credit availed from bank (USD442m as at Jun-12) towards coal imports and is marked at INR56/USD as at June 2012. Subsidiaries performance was impacted by one-off charges as accelerated depreciation of INR100m led to losses of INR200m at SACMH and at Jaigad transmission, company booked reversal of arrears of INR240m. Raj West recorded improvement in performance with PAT loss INR100m for 1QFY13, vs ~INR450m YoY.


 Robust operating performance, gross margin on up move: JSWEL net generation during the quarter stood at ~4.7BUs units (up 95% YoY), led by better PLFs at all the projects. In 1QFY13 gross margin improved to INR2.1/ unit, vs lows of INR0.2/unit in 2QFY12. Fuel cost was flat QoQ as entire coal inventory of the last quarter was consumed and benefit of lower prices would be realized from 2QFY13.


 Key takeaways from Analyst meet: a) Target to commission all units of Raj West project by Sept-12, hopeful of getting clearance for ~7mtpa production from Kapurdi mines, all units to operate from 3QFY13E, b) Booked entire Vijaynagar capacity for next 12 months at ST realization of INR4.25/unit+, c) Limit Buyer's credit (USD442m as at Jun-12) exposure to USD400m mark to avoid huge forex exposure, and d) fuel cost to see moderation in 2QFY13 as high cost inventory at Ratnagiri is fully consumed in 1QFY13.


 Valuations and view: We JSWEL to report consolidated net profit of INR6.2b (up 88% YoY) in FY13E and INR10.5b (up 69% YoY) in FY14E. Stock trades at PER of 8.3x and P/BV of 1.3x (RoE of 16%) on FY14E basis. Maintain Buy.

>SUGAR INDUSTRY: Is Sugar cycle near bottom for next Structural up move!

Sugar cane crop in the country appears to have reached near peak level: Major
upside potential for sugar cane crop from current level of 343mnt appears limited. Negligible
addition to cultivated land, rising profitability of farmers from other competing crops, increased
cane arrears during SY12 in UP will limit further addition to cane cultivation and stable drawal
rate. Below average monsoon expectation in Maharashtra and high cane arrears in UP likely to
affect sugar cane production mainly in SY13e.

Steadily rising demand vs. near stable crop: SY12 sugar production of 26mnt appears to
be near peak level considering stagnant acreage towards cane and stable drawal rate. Going
forward we expect sugar production go down to 23.5mnt in SY13e level. Sugar demand is
steadily rising at 3% reaching 22.5mnt in SY12. Reducing demand supply gap within domestic
market will reduce inventory level within system. However with somewhat lower crop in SY13
season and expected reduction in drawal rate, we expect sugar inventory to reduce from
current level of 5.9mnt to 5.7mnt by FY13e and 5.0mnt by SY14e. This is likely to push prices
upward going forward over next 1-2 years.

Levy quota likely be withdrawn or lowered: Much hyped positive expectation for the
industry is de-control of the industry wherein, near term possibility is withdrawal of levy quota
or lower % of levy sugar as per production and stocks available with government. Currently
sugar companies are selling 10% of their production at `1970/qtl which is 35% below market
price. There is expectation that Govt. will likely lower levy quota by atleast 5% or may
withdraw completely. This will benefit around `1200-2500cr to the industry.

By-products profitability: Power and distillery play very important role in improving
profitability of the mills. Rising import bill makes ethanol blending attractive thus, improving
demand prospects for distillery. Prolonged coal deficit in the country is shifting focus towards
alternate fuels improving prospects for co-generation. Most of sugar refineries have signed PPA with State Electricity Boards (SEBs).

Exports: India is likely to export around 3mnt of sugar in SY12e. Out of this, industry has
already expected around 2.5mnt by June 2012. Exports of around 5mnt over last two years
helped reducing countrywide sugar inventory which has prevented sugar prices sliding down.

Conclusion: It appears that worst for domestic sugar industry is over and sugar prices have upside potential from current level over long term. Domestic sugar cane crop appears to have reached peak level with marginal upside due to limiting factors such as limited addition to cultivated land, rising profitability of alternate crops and stable drawal rate. It also faces near term challenges in terms of below average expected monsoon for 2012 and rising cane arrears in UP.


Domestic consumption of sugar is rising at a steady pace of 3% reaching 22.5mnt in SY12. Surplus in the domestic market during last two years is absorbed globally with exports reaching around 3mnt in SY12. Thus, country is likely to end SY12 with inventory level of 5.9mnt. Reducing production and rising consumption to reduce inventory level to 5.7mnt and 5.0mnt in SY13e and SY14e respectively.  Reducing inventory level is likely to push sugar prices upward in the long term. Sugar companies stock prices are at trough level discounting major concerns thus, any positive would lead to re-rating of the stocks. We have a long term POSITIVE view on the sector. Companies which we prefer in the sector are: 1. Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. 2. Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd. 3. Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd.


To read report in detail: SUGAR INDUSTRY

RISH TRADER

>INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY OUTLOOK: Key growth drivers and threats

In the face of the volatility in the economic environment and currency, 2011 recorded steady growth for technology and related services sector, with worldwide spending surpassing USD 1.7 trillion, a growth of 5.4% over 2010. Software products, IT and BPO services continued to lead, accounting for over USD 1 trillion - 63% of the total spend. IT-hardware spend of USD 645 billion, accounted for the balance 38% of the worldwide technology spend in 2011. The year saw renewed demand for overall global sourcing, which grew by 12% over 2010, nearly twice the global technology spend growth.


India’s share in global sourcing stood at 58% in 2011, up from 55% in 2010. Indian IT-BPO exports continued on the growth path in FY12, as it is estimated to have grown by 16.3%. IT services has been exhibiting the robust growth at 19%, BPO growing by 13% & ER& D by 15%. Transformation, new business models are driving organization wide efficiencies


While the growth in IT-BPO spend is expected to be gradual over the next three years, global sourcing spend is seen to outpace this growth. IT outsourcing market is set to grow at a CAGR of about 8% over 2011 to 2013, while BPO off shoring is expected to grow at a little over 7% during the same period. Costs still remain essential for global sourcing, industry expertise and innovation is expected to drive future sourcing requirement. In addition, rate of introduction of new technology is much faster now and is expected to continue to be even faster in future. There is a strong correlation between technology adoption rate and investment rate. The year 2011 was the year of mobile adoption, where tablets and smartphones sales growth, by volume and by percentage, outpaced the shipment of desktop and laptop market. This mobile revolution witnessed spending by organizations in developing both consumer apps and enterprise apps.


From IT industry perspective - the market for enterprise mobility solutions alone is expected to grow to USD 17 bn by 2015, presenting a huge opportunity to increase revenue from this segment at a pace of triple-digit growth. Clearly, the future of technology services industry is beyond services - it will be a combination of services, solutions and platforms. Indian IT
organizations are investing in building platforms to drive future growth opportunities. These domain solutions and technology platforms will offer improved revenue leverage versus talent employed in the industry and will also significantly increase the intellectual property base of the Indian IT industry. The industry can take a clue from the fact that public cloud services
spending is expected to outpace growth of the overall IT spend by about four times between 2012 and 2015.


To read report in detail: IT INDUSTRY
RISH TRADER