Friday, May 15, 2009

>Silver improves; gold down on profit taking

Mumbai - Gold traded down in global market weighed by U.S. dollar strength and higher equity markets but traders and analysts said the metal could trend higher if the dollar weakens. Following the suite gold-silver futures traded lower on Multi Commodity Exchange Friday on selling pressure from higher level strong dollar. As of now precious metals are taking cues from the global market and traded lower on the domestic front.

The gold June futures traded down by Rs 30/10gm while silver May futures up up by Rs 23/kg.

MCX most active gold June contract opened down by Rs 22 at Rs 14,809/10gm. The contract saw movement between Rs 14,788 and Rs 14,817/10gm. At 10.56 am IST, the contract traded down Rs 30 at Rs 14,803/10gm. Total volumes in June contract recorded 1801 lots.

MCX gold mini the most active June contract opened up by Rs 15 at Rs.14, 785/10gm. The contract saw movement between Rs. 14,780 and Rs. 14,849/10 gm. At 10.58 am IST, June contract traded down by Rs 29 at Rs. 14,805/10 gm. Total volumes in June contract recorded 2638 lots.

Benchmark silver July contract opened down by Rs 65 at Rs 22,762/kg. The contract fluctuated between Rs 22,762 and Rs 22,889/kg. At 10.59 am, IST, silver July contract traded up by Rs 23 at Rs 22,850/kg. Total volumes in July contract recorded 1605 lots.

MCX silver mini June futures opened down by Rs 23 at Rs. 22,780/kg. It fluctuated between Rs.22,780 and 22,872/kg. At 11.00 am mini silver June futures traded up by Rs 28 at Rs 22,852/kg. Total volumes in June contract recorded 1986 lots.


Asia spot gold unchanged; focus on inflation

Sydney - Spot gold stuck to little changed levels in Asia Friday, and focused on dollar movements and equities.

Prices closing above the $920 a troy ounce technical level overnight has boosted positive momentum, helping gold to stand firm despite stronger equity markets in Asia and the dollar trending sideways against the euro.

"Right now there isn't much interest on either side but it's holding pretty well above $920/oz, helped by the PPI data," said Anderson Cheung, director of precious metals at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong.

U.S. producer price index data for April overnight showed a rise of 0.3% on month, well above market expectations.

"It means the inflation concerns could be valid, even though the economy is so weak at the moment," said Anderson.

The primary catalyst behind gold's recent strength has been U.S. dollar weakness, with fears for future inflation and renewed risk appetite lessening the case for holding cash.

Later Friday markets will see consumer price index data, another inflation gauge, which will be keenly watched following the PPI for further clues on changes in deflationary or inflationary pressures.

Other traders said it was too early for inflation pressures to be felt, but it's best not to stand in the way of market sentiment.

"The best trade right now is to do nothing. It's too early for inflation risk," said a Tokyo-based trader.

"Banks are still not giving out credit, U.S. banks are told to raise capital, and have to shrink their balance sheets - in that environment, how can inflation happen? But you can't stand in the way of a rising market, so we need to keep asking ourselves how true the price rise is," the trader said.

Another concern is the lack of physical buying as prices moved above the $900/oz level, traders said, meaning that technical and speculative momentum needs to keep building to propel prices higher.

At 0711 GMT, spot gold traded at $925.70/oz, unchanged from the New York close, and silver traded at $14.01/oz, down 4 cents. Platinum was up $6 at $1,117.00/oz and palladium down 50 cents at $223.50/oz.

Gold futures on Tocom were down Y7 at Y2,864 a gram for the April 2010 benchmark contract, while platinum futures were up Y58 at Y3,474/gram.

Gold quiet but PPI data keeps it well bid

Singapore - Spot gold at $926/oz, up 30 cents since NY close, but market very quiet, looks unlikely to move much before the weekend, says Anderson Cheung, director of precious metals at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. "Right now there isn't much interest on either side but it's holding pretty well above $920, helped by the PPI data," he says. U.S. PPI for April up 0.3% on-month, well above market expectations. "It means the inflation concerns could be valid, even though the economy is so weak at the moment." Says primary underlying catalyst behind recent gold strength is USD weakness; fears for USD mean bias is to the long side.

Source : COMMODITIESCONTROL

>Daily Market & Technical Outlook (ICICI Direct)

Key points
Market Outlook — Open positive on positive global cues
Positive — Inflation falling to 0.48%
Negative — Oil rising despite weak US jobs data

Market outlook

Indian markets are likely to remain very volatile in the last trading session before election results are announced during the weekend. We advise avoidance of big trades as political conditions may hamper market conditions in the next week. We may witness stock specific activity today with the index moving both sides of a range today

After rising for three consecutive weeks inflation fell to 0.48% for the week ended May 2, even as essential food items like pulses, cereals and vegetables ruled high

The Sensex has supports at 11760 and 11690 and resistances at 11940 and 12270. The Nifty has supports at 3590 and 3540 and resistances at 3650 and 3680.

Asian stocks were trading strong in the early session with most major indices gaining between 1 and 2%

US stocks rose on Thursday as investors returned to financial and technology shares on bets that the recent rally could have more room to grow after a brief pullback. Volume, however, was light, a possible indication of a lack of broad conviction. The surge in US markets over the past two months has made investors who missed the rally anxious to get back into stocks

Stocks in news: Dolphin Offshore, Cairn India, ONGC, Bharti Shipyard, Piramal Healthcare.

To see full report: OPENING BELL 150509

>RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (KOTAK SECURITIES)

Reality versus speculation. We analyze the factors that could propel RIL stock about 20% higher from current levels in a hypothetical exercise and conclude that favourable annpuncements on new E&P discoveries hold the key. We see limited scope for positive surprises in the chemical and refining segments and, in fact do not rule out negative surprises. Finally better disclosures may improve sentiment and multiplies; we believe the current level of disclosures leaves a lot of room for improvement.

Valuation 1: Rs 2,300 would entail higher chemical and refining margins and gas reserves
We compute that a fair valuation of Rs 2,300 for RIL stock, based on FY2011E estimates, would entail (1) significantly higher chemical margins (+16-24%), (2) very high refininf margins (US $13.8/bbl and US$12.4$/bbl for RIL and RPET refineries) and (3) additional 16 tcf of gas to be discovered over the next six years. Our SOTP-based 12-month fair valuation is Rs 1650 and fair valution based on FY2011E estimates is Rs1,750.

Valuation 2: Rs2,300 would entail large new E&P discoveries, unchanged margins in others
We estimate that RIL would need to add 51 tcf of additional gas reserves next over the six years without additional contribution from other businesses to reach our fair valuation of Rs 2,300 in our hypothetical exercise. It would be interesting to see if RIL can create further value from gas through forward integration into merchant power generation and city gas distribution.

Valuation exercise 3: Rs1,375 in downside scenario
We calculate RIL's fair valuation at Rs1,375 in our downside scearion of (1) weaker than assumed margins (US$50/ton lower for major chemicals, US$2/bbl lower for refining margins) and (2) higher-than-expected taxation (no income tax exemption for gas production). We also do not rule out lower multiples in case if lower0than-expected earnings.


Disclosures: Higher disclosures can boost positive sentiment and multiples
We believe in the quality of disclosures is not commensurate with the size and complexity of RIL's operations. In our view, higher disclosures will be perceived as a positive by the market and result in a possible re-rating of the stock. On the other hand, continued reticence with regard to disclosures and unexplained mismatches in reported financial statements may result in investors eventually de-rating the stock

To see full report: RIL

>FMCG (IDFC SSKI)

‘Small’ – The next BIG play!

Outperformance for the right reasons

■ Growth traction untouched by macro economic slowdown
■ Average revenue growth of 18%yoy in FY09
■ No leverage risk - near debt free / cash surplus companies
■ Healthy cash flow generation – cash profit at 4-5x the capex
■ Strong payouts – 50-70% of profits

Outlook remains ‘attractive’

What does our consumer channel checks suggest?

■ No signs of slowdown – metros witness 6-7%yoy volume growth, tier II 10-12% and rural growth strong at 15%+


■ Rural India, the driving force – 35%+ increase in agri commodity realizations, service sector employment and non-farm incomes

■ No material signs of consumer downtrading – barring in soaps, detergents and edible oil categories

■ Price cuts selective and no risk of price wars

To see full report: FMCG

>Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (FIRST GLOBAL)

REASONS FOR DOWNGRADE

• HUL delivered a disappointing performance in Q5 FY09, as a decline in sales volume of the company’s domestic FMCG business, as well as exports resulted in lower than expected revenues for the quarter

• The Personal Care segment, which was once HUL’s key growth driver, has been facing consumer downgrading due to the ongoing recession and lower discretionary income. The closure of 1000-1200 modern-trade retail outlets, including 800 outlets of Subhiksha, adversely impacted sales of the Personal Care segment in Q5 FY09

• Going forward, we expect consolidation in the retail industry due to the difficult macro economic environment to further impact the company’s sales, particularly in the Personal Care and Oral Care segments

• HUL’s exports continued to decline in Q5 FY09, as the company is exiting from the exports of non-core items. We expect a further decline in the company’s exports, as a result of lower demand on account of the economic slowdown

• Frequent price changes undertaken by HUL in the past has created growing uncertainty among wholesalers, who are de-stocking products in anticipation of further price cuts by the company, resulting in non-availability of products for consumers on the shelves of retailers.

The Story…
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (HUVR.IN) (HLL.BO) delivered a disappointing performance in Q5 FY09, as a decline in sales volume of the company’s domestic FMCG business, as well as exports resulted in lower than expected revenues for the quarter. In Q5 FY09, HUL’s total revenues grew merely 5% Y-o-Y to Rs.40.5 bn, as against our estimate of Rs 43.9 bn, due to a decline of 4% Y-o-Y in sales volume of the domestic FMCG business and a decline of 44.7% Y-o-Y in exports. The decline in sales volume of the company’s FMCG business in the quarter was on account of down trading by consumers, the closure of 800 modern trade retail outlets of Subhiksha, and de-stocking by traders, while the decline in exports was due to management intentionally cutting down non-core exports. In Q5 FY09, HUL’s key growth driver, the Personal Care segment, was impacted by the closure of modern trade retail outlets, as a result of which, the segment’s revenues grew merely 1.9% Y-o-Y.

HUL’s Personal Care segment is losing market share in the skin care and oral care categories, while the Soap & Detergent segment continues to bear the burden of the company’s businesses, such as Processed foods, Ice Cream, Water Pure-It and Chemicals, which are still in the nascent stage and yet to break-even. The consolidation in the modern-retail industry and decline in the number of outlets due to the economic slowdown continues to impact the sales volume of some of HUL’s segments. We believe that the consumer down trading in low end products witnessed in Q5 FY09 will continue going forward as well, on account of the ongoing downturn and lower disposable incomes. We are, therefore, lowering our EPS estimate for FY10 from Rs.11.8 to Rs.10.5. On the valuation front, the stock currently trades at a P/E of 21.3x our CY09 EPS estimate of Rs.10.41 and EV/EBIDTA of 17.3x our CY09 estimates. We now downgrade HUL to ‘Market Perform.’

To see full report: HUL

>Indian Overseas Bank (ICICI DIRECT)

Disappointment on core income…
Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) reported Q4FY09 numbers, which were below our expectation on the NII front. The bank reported NII of Rs 704 crore, tepid growth of 3.2% YoY against our expectation of Rs 846 crore. The bottomline came in line at Rs 322 crore, registering a growth of 5.3% YoY, mainly due to 77% growth in non interest income to Rs 623 crore. Total business of the bank grew 21% YoY to Rs 175925 crore fuelled by deposit growth of 19% to Rs 100116 crore and advance growth of 24% to Rs 75810 crore. The asset quality of the bank deteriorated significantly during the year with GNPA of 2.5% and NNPA of 1.3%. CAR for the bank was
comfortable at 13.2% with Tier I capital of 7.9%.

Highlight of the quarter
Recoveries and treasury gains mainly contributed to non-interest income growth of 77% YoY. IOB reduced its BPLR by 75 bps in Q4FY09. So, yield on advances was expected to move southwards. This resulted in growth in interest income by 24% YoY to Rs 9641 crore. CASA slipped by 320 bps to 30.3%, which increased the interest expense by 28% YoY to Rs 6772 crore and resulted in NIMs contracting from over 3% in Q3FY09 to 2.6% for Q4FY09.

Valuations
At the current price of Rs 64, the stock is trading at 0.6x and 0.5x its FY10E and FY11E ABV, respectively. The bank has restructured assets worth Rs 4900 crore and has pending application of over Rs 3000 crore (together accounting for over 10% of loan book). This can impact the profitability, going ahead. Moderating business growth, deteriorating asset quality and rising pressure on NIMs will cap the upside for the stock. Thus, this warrants that we reduce the multiple assigned to the bank previously. We, therefore, value the stock at 0.65x FY10E ABV of Rs 114 and arrive at a target price of Rs 74. We rate the stock as PERFORMER.

To see full report: INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK

>R SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL (SUNIDHI)

Company Description:
Incorporated in 1993, R Systems International is a New Delhi-based software product development company. It helps companies bring products and services to market quickly by using its different products and services comprising the pSuite framework, which is an execution framework for PLM (product lifecycle management) services.

Other than the two 100% subsidiaries, R Systems Inc California and R Systems in Singapore, it has acquired two companies, Indus and ECnet, to cater to the banking, finance and manufacturing and logistics verticals. Indus Lending Solutions Business products cater to the retail lending industry and the ECnet suite of products offer supply chain collaboration solutions. RSIL tapped the market in April 2006 at a price of Rs 250 per share aggregating Rs 70.6 crore.

Highlights:
Other services include building and supporting software products in diverse areas like Internet security, Internet music delivery, Internet IP TV, banking applications, supply chain management, ERP solutions, and knowledge management. These software products & services find application across industry verticals such as banking & finance, government, health care, high technology and software vendors.

A significant percentage of R Systems revenues are generated from exports. The development and service centres in Noida, Pune and Chennai are registered with the Software Technology Park of India in their respective areas as 100% Export Oriented Undertakings.

R Systems rapidly growing customer list includes a variety of Fortune 1000, government and mid-sized organizations across a wide range of industries including Banking and Finance and High Technology and Independent Software Vendors, Government, HealthCare, Manufacturing and Logistic. RSIL maintains 8 development and service centres and using its global delivery model it serves customers in the US, Europe, South America, the Far East, the Middle East and Africa.

RSIL had approved the buy back of its shares in September 08 at a maximum price of Rs. 150 per equity share and accordingly bought back nearly 6.4 lakh shares reducing its equity to Rs 12.87 crore in Q1CY09. It continues to buyback another 6.66 lakh shares, which would further reduce its equity to Rs 12.2 crore. During CY08 RSIL has set up branch offices in Netherlands and Japan.


To see full report: R SYSTEMS

>ENGINEERING SECTOR (MOTILAL OSWAL)

Free cash flow contraction ahead
During past 5 years, the strong earnings growth has provided strength to the capital goods sector balance sheet. Scenario is set to change with earnings moderation and increased working capital requirement. We expect the earnings quality to undergo deterioration during FY09-FY11, given lower free cash flows of Rs32b during FY09-FY11 vs Rs100b during FY06-FY08. This will be driven by increased working capital requirements to 16.9% of revenues in FY11 as compared to 3.1% in FY08. Thus, the capital goods sector, which had moved from net debt of Rs37b in FY02 to net cash of Rs68b in FY08, is expected to lose net cash status by FY11/FY12; but still maintain a comfortable DER of almost -0.03x in FY11E. Given the weak earnings outlook and lower free cash flow generation, we expect capital goods sector to be a market performer. We have no Buy recommendations in the sector.

Free cash flows set to decline to Rs32b during FY09-FY11, v/s Rs100b during FY06-08#: The listed capital goods sector over the past 7 years has gradually reduced investments in fixed assets and working capital has been tightened. The current downturn should reverse this shift towards an asset light model, as working capital deteriorates and investments in capex increases. We expect free cash flows (post capex and working capital) to decline from Rs100b during FY06-FY8 to Rs32b during FY09-FY11. This could mean lower valuation multiples as compared to FY06-FY08 for the sector.

Working capital deterioration imminent during FY09-FY11: During FY01-08, NWC (Net Working Capital, percentage revenue) has improved from 36.4% in FY01 to 3.1% in FY08, mainly on account of (1) reduction in inventory from 107 days in FY01 to 68 days in FY08 and (2) increased client advances from 60 days in FY01 to 96 days in FY08. Going forward, we expect net working capital to increase from 3.1% in FY08 to 16.9% in FY11 driven by (1) lower customer advances (as % of revenues) triggered by stagnation in order intake, (2) shift towards government projects (v/s private projects) as well as towards projects as against products and (3) weakening of vendor finances.

To see full report: ENGINEERING SECTOR

>Global Market Watch (AIG INVESTMENTS)

OVERVIEW

■ The nature of a business-cycle inflection point is that it is defined by elements that both bulls and bears favor – for very different reasons.

■ At the current inflection point, bears will likely point to the continued problems occurring in the U.S. and European banking sectors. Earnings at financial institutions appear to have rebounded during the first quarter of 2009. However, the U.S. government’s stress testing has revealed continued capital shortages at a number of large U.S. banks and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) most recent Financial Stability Report puts the global total losses from the financial markets crisis at a staggering $4 trillion. Add to that the new threat of a swine flu pandemic, and it is not hard to see why some investors remain extremely cautious.

■ However, we prefer to take the “glass-half-full-view.” We agree with those commentators highlighting the most recent improvements in the economic backdrop, not just here in the US and in Europe, but especially in Asia.

■ The financial markets also seem to have been on our side over the past few weeks. Global equity markets significantly outperformed government bonds in April. Additionally, Emerging Markets posted higher returns than the more developed regions for the fifth straight month, emphasizing the gradual decline in risk aversion. Within Developed Markets, Europe marginally outperformed the U.S. The worst performer, and the region where we have our largest underweight position, was Japan.

■ Among the three main regions in Emerging Markets, although we see the greatest potential for an economic rebound to be in Asia, surprisingly, Latin America and EMEA both outperformed

ASIA
■ What about signs of an inflection point in Japan? The collapse in activity in what is still the world’s second largest economy has been stunning and revealed a much greater export dependency than many economists expected. Quarterly GDP declined by a stunning 12.1% during the last quarter of 2008, and the IMF is looking for an overall 7.2% contraction this year.

■ There are, however, a few faint signs of hope that a pickup in regional trade is stirring an improvement in Japan’s industrial sector. In fact, Reuters’ monthly version of the widely watched Tankan business survey has stabilized in the past few months, March Industrial Production posted a small increase, and the decline in export volumes appears to have stopped.

■ A few weeks ago, the government announced its fourth fiscal stimulus package in six months,
but it will be the resumption of global trade that is most likely to provide the spark for a recovery in Japan.

■ In addition to the U.S., the other region that is showing the most convincing signs of improvement is Asia ex-Japan, where the aggressive policy response by the Chinese government is starting to arrest the decline in economic activity in the broader region. For example, bank-loan generation in China is hitting record highs, and the economy posted a stronger 5.8% increase in the first quarter. Korea’s economy eked out a small increase during the first quarter, and Taiwan’s exports to China have rebounded.

■ In contrast to SARS or the avian flu outbreak a few years ago, the epicenter of the current “swine flu” pandemic lies in the Western Hemisphere. However, Asia’s dependence on international trade could turn into a weakness again, if countries in North America or Europe decide to restrict air travel or close shipping ports. In the long run, Asia’s importance in the global economy will continue to grow, not just due to demographics, but also due to their healthier economies, improved fiscal balances and the lack of overleveraged private sectors.

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
■ Our cautious approach to increasing risk in our equity and fixed income portfolios is starting to pay off. We had a small equity overweight in our balanced strategies as we started to tilt our portfolios towards the “Global Reflation” theme, and an eventual economic rebound. In addition, the gradual rotation away from the larger, more liquid developed markets towards areas with greater growth potential is proving to be the right strategy, as well.

■ We still do not have an outright overweight position in either Emerging Market equities or bonds, but we increased our exposure to both asset classes last month. The reflation theme suggests that, within both Developed and Emerging Markets, economies with more aggressive crisis response should continue to outperform; hence our overweight in the U.S. and Asia ex-Japan.

■ Finally, attractive valuation and signs of stabilization in financial market conditions continue to support our small overweight in High Yield credit in our fixed income strategies. Over the short-term, investor risk appetites may be curbed by the “swine flu” scare. However, we believe the improving economic backdrop and the continued aggressive policy response will support our current modestly constructive posture in both our equity and fixed income strategies

To see full report: Global Market Watch

>TVS Motor Company Ltd. (EMKAY)

Worst is behind, upgrade rating to HOLD

We came back positive from our meeting with the management of TVS Motor on (1)
profitability of domestic business due to easing metal prices (2) strong management confidence (3) rational growth targets. However, a lot depends on the success of the new launches (upgrade of Flame, a new motorcycle in price range of 40000 to 45000 and a new ungeared scooter).

Having said that, we continue to have concerns with respect to Indonesian venture.
We are concerned with the cash burn as well as limited availability of information with respect to the Indonesian venture. The management indicated of a loss of Rs 500 mn (Rs 1.5 per share) in FY09 as well as FY10. Also, TVS has taken a debt of USD 30 mn in the Indonesian venture (30% of FY10 standalone debt).

We believe that worst is over for TVS in the domestic business on volumes as well as
profitability front. Infact, we believe that in FY10, the company would report the maximum EBIDTA growth, largely due to low base. We have upgraded our FY10 earnings estimates by 12% to Rs 2.9 per share and introduce our FY11 estimates. We upgrade our target price to Rs 35. At Rs 35, the stock would trade at a PER of 12.2x and 9.1x, EV/EBIDTA of 7x and 5.7x and P/B of 1.0x and 0.9x our FY10 and FY11 estimates respectively. We upgrade our rating on the stock from SELL to HOLD.

Extracts of the management meeting are as follows


New launches

In motorcycles, TVS will introduce a new model in he price range of 40,000 to Rs 45,000 in 2HFY10. In June/July 2009, the company will introduce upgrade of Flame, rectifying the errors with the existing Flame.

In scooters, TVS will be launching a new ungeared scooter in 100cc+ category, which is around 70% of the scooters market. This will also provide a cushion against the potential market share loss in the sub 100cc segment, with the entry of Honda Motors and Scooters India (HMSI). TVS aims to increase its run rate by 5000 p.m (increase of 27% over FY09 average run rate of 18,400), scooters post the launch of 100cc+ scooter. We have factored in an increase of 2000 units p.m
from 2HFY10.

For Mopeds, the company is looking for a modest growth of 5% to 6%. The primary focus area will be accessing the non southern market. The company will be focusing on creating awareness for its mopeds. We do not expect any significant contribution from the new markets in FY10.

Profit margins

Gross profit margins (Sales – RM) for mopeds, scooters and motorcycles are comparable. However, there are higher Selling and distribution cost in case of motorcycles and scooters due to low volumes and intense competition. With rising volumes in motorcycles, the per vehicle cost will come down and hence aid EBIDTA margin expansion.

Indonesia operation

Till date TVS has invested around USD 80 mn. Of this around USD 40-45 mn is towards physical assets, USD 15 to 20 mn is towards product development and balance towards brand building activity.

The funding for the Indonesian venture has been through equity contribution of USD 50 m from TVS (which itself was funded through an ECB) and USD 30 mn through a debt from IFC.

Also, the company will need around USD 10 m per annum in the near term for brand building activity.

Indonesian venture has made a loss of around Rs 500mn in FY09 and expect similar amount of loss in FY10.

It aims to breakeven in FY11 with a target sales of 100,000 units.

It has around 100 dealers as on now and the number is expected to increase to 150. The dealers have a very low operating cost model and break even with as low as 35 units per month.

Debt on books
Long term debt in standalone books is around 5.3 bn. Out of these around 80 m is through ECB and balance is sales tax deferral loan.

Around USD 40 m ECB is repayable in F10 as well as FY11. Capex

Capex for FY10 and FY11 will be around Rs 400 mn

Three – wheelers
Total investment of Rs 1.5 bn

Dealer ship network of around 60 dealers

Company aims to breakeven at 15,000 units p.a.

We have been very conservative in our volumes assumptions for three wheelers and expect company to sell around 5000 numbers in FY11.

Valuation and View

We believe that worst is over for TVS in the domestic business on volumes as well as profitability front. Infact, we believe that in FY10, the company would report the maximum EBIDTA growth, largely due to low base. We have upgraded our FY10 earnings estimates by 12% to Rs 2.9 per share and introduce our FY11 estimates. Having said that we continue to have concerns with respect to Indonesian venture. We are concerned with both the cash burn as well lack of regular information flow. However, we do not expects the stock price to react negatively to the loss reported by the Indonesian business given the start up nature of the business. We upgrade our target price to Rs 35. At Rs 35, the stock would trade at a PER of 12.2x and 9.1x, EV/EBIDTA of 7x and 5.7x and P/B of 1.0x and 0.9x our FY10 and FY11 estimates respectively. We upgrade our rating on the stock from SELL to HOLD.

To see full report: TVS MOTOR